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FOREX NEWS: EURO ON THE RETREAT ON THE BACK OF DOVISH DRAGHI COMMENTS

EUR/USD

As expected the ECB maintained the rate unchanged but during the ECB press conference that followed, the Euro started to weaken on the back of Mario Draghi’s comments that were perceived as dovish by the market.



Technical Outlook

The Euro took a hit yesterday and after a short lived move to the upside, the pair started to drop and broke through several support levels. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also clearly broken and the medium term bias is once again bearish as long as price remains below this technical indicator. We expect another encounter with 1.0570 and possibly 1.0525 but keep in mind that sometimes after a strong move to one side (like the one seen yesterday), a retracement soon follows.

Fundamental Outlook

Only one important economic release made it to today’s headlines: the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. This is a survey that tries to gauge the confidence of consumers in current economic conditions and usually a higher number indicates that in the future consumer spending will increase. This often strengthens the US Dollar so we may see further downside action for the pair if the actual number will be above the forecast 94.3; the time of release is 3:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the US Dollar made a nice comeback against the Pound after a bounce round 1.2675 which is now confirmed resistance. Bearish pressure mounts but the Moving Average is not yet broken decisively.



Technical Outlook

After a climb early during yesterday’s session, the pair dropped to test the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and although at the time of writing price is below it, we cannot yet consider it a true break. If the pair remains below this technical indicator, we expect to finish the week on a bearish note, with price approaching 1.2480 – 1.2500 but we don’t expect this target to be hit today. A quick return above the 50 EMA will make 1.2675 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

Price action today will be mainly driven by the U.S. Consumer survey and by the technical aspect because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued the bearish momentum started a day earlier and the US Dollar continued to strengthen against the Euro. Part of the Dollar’s good performance was due to a better than expected Consumer Sentiment survey (forecast 94.3, actual 98.0).



Technical Outlook

Although lately the bears have been in control, the key support at 1.0525 is not broken, the Stochastic is oversold and the Relative Strength Index is very close to its 30 level (which indicates oversold). These factors increase the chance of a bounce higher but as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish. If 1.0525 is broken the pair will test 1.0460, which is the lowest price reached since early 2015.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have any major releases on today’s economic calendar, thus the main focus will be on the technical aspect. After last week’s strong movement, it’s likely to see a slow, ranging trading session.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair had a choppy session Friday and an early climb was soon reversed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The day ended close to where it started and no major advances were made.



Technical Outlook

Bullish price action found resistance at the 50 period Moving Average but the bearish bounce didn’t continue through Thursday’s low and now the pair is trading without a clear direction. The most part of last week was controlled by the bears and if they can maintain control we will likely see a move closer to 1.2480 – 1.2500 but we don’t expect this target to be reached today. A clean break of the 50 EMA would make 1.2675 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected by major economic indicators today, thus the technical side will be the main market mover.

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS TEMPORARY WEAKNESS, AHEAD OF BRITISH INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair found once again strong support at 1.0525 and bounced higher, generating a bullish trading session yesterday. There were no major news releases so price direction was mostly driven by the technical aspect.



Technical Outlook

Lately the level at 1.0570 doesn’t seem to have a lot of importance for price and as we can see it was breached twice without any struggle. However, 1.0525 remains a key support, while to the upside the first barrier is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Today we expect to see an encounter with this dynamic resistance and with the level at 1.0650; if that resistance zone cannot be broken, we expect to see another move to test 1.0525, otherwise the pair is headed for 1.0710 again but we favour the short side as long as price is trading below the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is today’s main release, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to increase to 14.2 from the previous 13.8. This is a survey of about 275 German professional investors and analysts and acts as a leading indicator of economic health focused on the respondents’ 6-month outlook. Higher numbers show optimism and usually strengthen the Euro but the impact is not always very strong.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar had a slow start of the week against the Pound and the pair moved back above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on the four-hour chart. The picture is once again blurry and the pair may be entering another ranging period if a breakout is not registered soon.



Technical Outlook

The pair is testing 1.2675 again, with both oscillators showing good upside momentum and this increases the chance of a bullish break of said level. If this is the case, we expect to see a continued move to the upside during the days to come, but if price bounces lower here, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will become the first target for today. If the moving average is broken, the next destination may be the recent low at 1.2550, which will act as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index is today’s highlight for the Pound. The indicator is the main gauge of inflation and usually has a high impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The time of the release is 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is 1.1% (previous 0.9%).

FOREX NEWS: TO HIKE OR NOT TO HIKE? BUCKLE UP FOR MASSIVE MOVES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a choppy session yesterday, without a clear direction and without much movement. The German ZEW survey disappointed and this initially weakened the Euro to a limited extent but the losses were soon erased.



Technical Outlook

Price is still struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0650 and control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. This type of behaviour is likely to continue today until the Fed announce their rate decision and the technical aspect will be secondary. The levels to watch are 1.0650 (current resistance), 1.0700 and 1.0525; be prepared for irregular movement and increased volatility.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a crucial day for the US Dollar as the Fed will announce their decision on the interest rate. The forecast is an increase to <0.75% from the current <0.50% and if it comes true, we can expect to see massive US Dollar strength and increased volatility. The FOMC Statement is released at 7:00 pm GMT and will contain the outcome of the rate decision as well as insights into the reasons that determined it.

Half an hour later, at 7:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference during which she will answer journalists’ questions and will offer more details about monetary policy. The entire cluster of events will probably create irregular movement so we recommend caution until things calm down.


GBP/USD

British inflation improved as shown by yesterday’s CPI release (actual 1.2%, expected 1.1%) and this strengthened the Pound, taking the pair above resistance.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.2675 is now broken so we can expect to see a move closer to 1.2770 but in case price drops through the recently broken level, we will likely see an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic is overbought and this increases the chances of a move lower but it is not a clear indication that price will drop today. Keep in mind that the Fed Meeting will have a strong impact on the US Dollar and thus on the pair.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Claimant Count is released, showing changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related help. The indicator acts as a measure health for the UK jobs market that can strengthen the Pound if it posts a lower number than the forecast 6.2K. Later in the afternoon the pair will be heavily influenced by the Fed Meeting.

FOREX NEWS: FED HIKES AND DOLLAR STRENGTHENS. BUT FOR HOW LONG?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Ahead of the Fed release the pair moved almost completely sideways, as most traders were waiting for the announcement. The Fed decided towards a raise to <0.75% and also mentioned that 3 more hikes should be expected during 2017; the US Dollar responded by strengthening and the pair slipped lower, touching support.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0650 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average continued to reject rising price and now the pair is testing the support at 1.0570. If this level can be broken, we expect to see a drop into 1.0525 and even lower, towards 1.0460. The US Dollar is surrounded by a positive sentiment and will likely continue to strengthen during the days to come but at the moment, the pair’s direction is still not clear so we cannot exclude a sudden move up.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:30 pm GMT we take a look at U.S. inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. Under normal circumstances, a higher change than the forecast 0.2% strengthens the US Dollar but given yesterday’s events, we may get a mixed reaction from this release.


GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count Change showed that less people applied for unemployment related benefits last month and this strengthened the Pound early during yesterday’s session. However, the Fed rate hike nullified all the gains and took the pair below the 50 period EMA.



Technical Outlook

The latest impulse is bearish and the US Dollar is gaining against most of its counterparts, so we anticipate a touch of 1.2550 in the short term and possibly a move below 1.2480 during the days to come. However, if the pair will reverse and move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, this scenario will be invalidated and 1.2675 will become the first bullish target.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the day for the Pound is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT in the form of the British Retail Sales. This type of sales represents a major part of the entire consumer spending and a higher number shows increased economic activity; the forecast is a change of 0.2% and usually numbers above it strengthen the currency.

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current 0.25%) and will release a Monetary Policy Summary that contains details about the reasons that influenced the rate decision. More importantly, the Summary may contain hints about future rate changes and if that’s the case, we expect the Pound to react strongly.

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN TOTAL CONTROL. SMALL PULLBACKS ANTICIPATED

EUR/USD

Forex News: U.S inflation numbers that came out yesterday matched analysts’ expectations (0.2% change) so the release didn’t have a strong impact but the pair continued to descend yesterday, mostly due to the Fed hike.



Technical Outlook

The pair broke 1.0460, which was the lowest point reached since 2015 so now we could say we are in uncharted waters because the current level was last seen in 2003. The bears are in clear control and we expect further downside movement in the medium term but the oscillators have reached oversold and price travelled a long distance without a retracement. The level at 1.0460 may act as resistance for such a pullback but overall we expect price to move lower.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Final CPI is released, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. The indicator acts as a measure of inflation but the Final version is the least important; nonetheless, higher numbers than the forecast 0.6% can strengthen the Euro but to a limited extent considering the current situation.

On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Building Permits, released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show 1.24M, slightly lower than the previous 1.26M. The indicator is a measure of activity in the housing sector and higher numbers can strengthen the currency but the impact is usually mild.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged and the British Retail Sales matched the forecast so the Pound wasn’t much affected. The US Dollar continued to strengthen and the day ended significantly lower.



Technical Outlook

The huge drop seen over the last couple of days is likely to continue until 1.2385 support is touched but we may see a retracement higher soon, due to the overextended condition of price. The oscillators have entered oversold and warn of such a possible pullback but after this move is completed, we expect the pair to continue lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today but the pair will be directly affected by the U.S. Building Permits.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

FOREX NEWS: BUYERS FIGHT BACK, US DOLLAR STILL HYPED BY FED BOOST

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair retraced higher Friday but movement was slower compared to the previous days. The bears are in control but an extended move up is not out of the question.



Technical Outlook

After hitting the low at 1.0366 price moved higher to test the recently broken support at 1.0460 but for now it looks like the level is holding and may turn into resistance. If this is the case, we expect to see another drop closer to 1.0366 but a move above 1.0460 will open the door for a touch of 1.0525. However, as long as the pair is trading below 1.0525 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, a survey of about 7,000 businesses that tries to gauge the optimism of respondents regarding a 6 month outlook on economic conditions. The time of the release is 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is 110.7, slightly higher than the previous 110.4.


GBP/USD

Friday was a better day for the Pound, which strengthened against the greenback after an almost perfect bounce at support. The economic calendar was light so the bounce can be mostly attributed to the technical side.



Technical Outlook

It looks like the pair has found good support at 1.2385 as seen from Friday’s price action, so we can expect this level to be of importance for future direction. Currently the pair is testing 1.2480 zone but rejection is present as shown by the long wick of the penultimate four-hour candle; also, the US Dollar is still strengthening so it’s very likely to see a resumption of the bearish movement from this level. As an alternate scenario, a clear break of 1.2480 will probably take price closer to the 50 EMA and the level at 1.2550.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is empty today for the Pound, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.

FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND STAGGERS, RANGE-BOUND TRADING AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bulls didn’t manage to take the pair above resistance yesterday, although the German IFO Business Climate posted a higher reading than analysts had anticipated. The release created just a brief moment of upside movement and soon after, price took a downwards direction.



Technical Outlook

So far the resistance at 1.0460 is holding and seems to reject price lower so we anticipate another encounter with the low at 1.0366. However, it’s possible to see the start of a ranging period, with price moving above and below 1.0460 without a clear direction. The week lacks major economic releases and Christmas is approaching so we may enter a period of irregular volatility but as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Producer Price Index is scheduled for release today at 7:00 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.1% from the previous 0.7%. The indicator usually has a low impact but higher numbers are beneficial for the currency and this is the only notable indicator of the day.


GBP/USD

The bears controlled most of yesterday’s trading session after a bounce at resistance. The move was mostly technical because the economic calendar lacked any major releases.



Technical Outlook

The resistance zone around 1.2500 capped upside movement yesterday and now it appears like 1.2385 is broken. This support is important for short term price action, so of the bears can keep the pair below it, we expect to see a move into 1.2325 (1.2300), possibly during today’s session. A quick move above the current level will make the next direction uncertain and will probably trigger ranging movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has another lacklustre day from a fundamental standpoint as no major releases are scheduled. This will likely contribute to slow, ranging movement.

FOREX NEWS: OVEREXTENDED MOVES CALL FOR BULLISH PULLBACKS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Producer Price Index released yesterday showed a slightly better than anticipated value but this didn’t do much for an already weak Euro. The pair continued its descent and pierced the low at 1.0366.



Technical Outlook

The main direction is south but the pair is likely to retrace higher before 1.0366 support can be broken decisively. Yesterday price breached the mentioned support but this is by no means a true break yet and it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index as well as the Stochastic are approaching oversold, thus increasing the chances of a pullback north. Price action may be irregular today and the rest of the week, due to the approaching of Christmas and the lack of major economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator of the day is released at 3:00 pm GMT: the U.S. Existing Home Sales. The indicator shows the annualized number of previously owned houses (not new construction) that were sold during the previous month and a higher reading usually shows increased economic activity and a healthy house market. The forecast is 5.52M while the previous value was 5.60M.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar continued its assault on the Pound yesterday and the pair dropped to touch the next support. The economic calendar was light so the fundamental side didn’t have a major impact.



Technical Outlook

The support around 1.2325 – 1.2300 is strong and although the main direction is down, we may see a bullish pullback from this area. The situation is similar to the EUR/USD, with both oscillators approaching oversold and price near support, so it’s possible for the pair to continue to move south but the extent should be limited before a retracement occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any notable news releases so the technical side will be the main market mover.

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT HOLDS, DOWNTREND STILL INTACT AHEAD OF U.S. GDP

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Existing Home Sales posted yesterday a higher number than analysts’ expectations but the release didn’t have the strength to drive the pair lower and instead a bullish retracement occurred.



Technical Outlook

The retracement was expected and so far it’s not a reason of concern for the downtrend but it’s very likely to see an encounter with 1.0460 which may turn into resistance. If the level is breached, the pair will touch the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and we expect it to reverse lower unless the US Dollar will be weakened by the economic data released throughout the day. To the downside 1.0366 zone remains strong support, while to the upside we don’t expect the pair to surpass 1.0525.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is probably the busiest day of the week, with two important releases, both scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT: the CORE Durable Goods Orders and the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (Final version). The first is a leading indicator of production that shows changes in orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years, excluding transportation items (expected change 0.2%, previous 0.8%). The GDP is the main gauge of economic performance but the Final version is the least important, so we don’t expect huge volatility at the release; nonetheless, higher values for these indicators usually bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Yesterday after another encounter with support, the pair jumped higher to test the resistance at 1.2385, showing choppy price action and no clear direction.



Technical Outlook

During the recent period the pair has touched 1.2325 support twice and both times it moved higher, reaching resistance. Until a clear break happens, the pair is likely to stay in range mode, bouncing between support and resistance. The downtrend is still present and the US Dollar is still strong but this doesn’t exclude a move above 1.2385 before bearish action can resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is light so the U.S. releases will be the main price mover, as well as the technical aspect.