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EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had another bullish day yesterday and broke through resistance but action clearly slowed down and now signs of rejection are present. Draghi’s speech went mostly unnoticed and did not generate substantial movement.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0800 was breached yesterday but the pair slowed down soon after moving past the level. However, we maintain our bullish bias and still anticipate a touch of 1.0850, where a deeper retracement will occur but the overbought condition of the Stochastic must be noted; although this is a lagging indicator, it warns of a potential pullback so we don’t exclude a drop into 1.0770. Today’s price direction will be mostly influenced by the fundamentals, which will overshadow the technical side.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important U.S jobs data of the month is released today at 1:30 pm GMT: the Non-Farm Payrolls (also known as the Non-Farm Employment Change). The report tracks changes in the number of employed people and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending (people with jobs tend to spend more). The forecast is a change of 170K and higher numbers usually generate US Dollar strength; volatility is almost always high at release and price action may be irregular.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened substantially yesterday, after the release of the Inflation Report and Carney’s press conference. Support was broken and now the pair is testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

After the failed attempt to break 1.2675 the pair dropped to touch the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but it must be noted that an uptrend is still present so at the moment this is considered just a retracement. If the 50 period EMA is broken and then a lower high is formed, the uptrend will be in serious jeopardy and we may see a full scale reversal; the current level at 1.2550 is support and in confluence with the moving average it will create a strong barrier.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is released, showing opinions about business conditions and the overall health of the sector; the anticipated number is 55.8 and higher values strengthen the Pound but the highlight of the day will be the NFP release, which will directly affect the pair.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR WEAKENS DESPITE ENCOURAGING NFP REPORT. MORE EFFECTS STILL TO COME?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls posted a figure of 227K, while the forecast was 170K; however, another report showed that hourly earnings have decreased compared to the previous month and this triggered a mixed reaction, weakening the US Dollar overall.



Technical Outlook

Friday the pair bounced perfectly between 1.0710 support and 1.0800 resistance and now it has printed a lower low as well as a lower high, a pattern that may indicate a reversal to the downside. However, the bias remains mostly neutral as long as price is trading between 1.0800 and 1.0710. We expect a choppy session, with the pair ranging between the two mentioned zones.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Factory Orders are released today at 7:00 am GMT and although this is not a high impact indicator, it is today’s only notable one. It measures changes in purchase orders and acts as a leading indicator of production, with higher values strengthening the Euro; today’s forecast is a change of 0.6% while the previous was -2.5%.


GBP/USD

The pair slowed down Friday and remained in a relatively tight range, capped to the downside by 1.2480 and to the upside by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Most of this indecision was created by the mixed U.S. employment data.



Technical Outlook

Price is clearly trading below the 50 period EMA after a drop from 1.2675 resistance zone, but the support at 1.2480 is doing a good job at hindering downside movement. Once and if this barrier is broken, we expect to see a touch of 1.2420 but the oversold condition of the Stochastic mustn’t be overlooked (although this is a lagging indicator), so we expect a bounce up if the mentioned support is reached. To the upside, 1.2550 is the first target and place where price is likely to bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by any important economic indicators, so the technical side will prevail.

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FOREX NEWS: POUND NULLIFIES LOSSES. IS THE EURO NEXT?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued its assault on the Euro yesterday and the pair dropped in close vicinity of support. Overall the session was bearish, with very little buyer presence.



Technical Outlook

The US Dollar has regained short term control and is dragging the pair lower, aiming for 1.0650 support. Once it gets there, we expect to see a climb closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but not above 1.0700 zone of resistance; the oscillators are approaching oversold, thus increasing the chances of a bullish pullback. Although lately the pair is controlled by the bears, we must acknowledge the uptrend that is still present, so we cannot exclude a sudden jump above 1.0700.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Commission will release today the forecasts for the next 2 years regarding economic expectations but the exact time is not yet known. This is not a high impact event but usually a hawkish stance generates Euro strengths and takes the pair higher.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped for the main part of the session but all the move was erased in the afternoon and now price is trading back above support after a strong rejection.



Technical Outlook

The break of 1.2420 support proved short lived and price reversed sharply before reaching 1.2325 support. The Stochastic was already oversold and moving up, while the Relative Strength Index just reached oversold before the bounce and these were early signs of a potential move north. The current situation is fuzzy but we expect the climb to extend into 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average where the next direction will be decided.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major events scheduled for the Pound or the US Dollar today so the technical aspect will prevail.

FOREX NEWS: THE BALANCE OF POWER SHIFTS AGAIN. INDECISION TAKES OVER

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday was a slow day on the fundamental scene but the pair didn’t lack action and showed a perfect bounce at support, followed by a touch of resistance. It remained capped and a breakout didn’t occur.



Technical Outlook

Price is bouncing between 1.0650 support and 1.0710 resistance and so far we don’t have a clear winner. If the current move extends past 1.0710, it will encounter the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the way it will behave there, will probably decide the next direction. If the bulls can close a full candle above the 50 EMA, we may expect to see a resurgence of the uptrend but a bounce lower will show that the balance of power is shifting towards the short side, so we will be looking for a break of 1.0650.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims, an indicator that shows how many people asked for unemployment related benefits during the previous week. Usually the impact is low-to-medium, mostly because the indicator is released every week, but higher numbers than the forecast 249K can weaken the US Dollar. The time of the release is 1:30 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

After a brief stall at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bulls took control again and now resistance is tested, with price confined between support and resistance.



Technical Outlook

The latest impulse is bullish and the pair is now trading above the 50 period EMA, with the oscillators showing a strong momentum. However, upside action is capped by 1.2550 resistance and if this barrier is not breached early into the session, we expect a drop below the Moving Average and possibly below 1.2480 support. Overall the picture is mixed and neither side is in clear control.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 6:30 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech at the Bank of England Inclusion Reception, in London. As always, speeches of heads of central banks should be treated with caution because volatility may surge, depending on the speaker’s attitude and matters discussed.