[分享] 外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

FOREX NEWS: BREAKOUTS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST DAY OF THE TRADING WEEK

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday both the German Consumer Price Index and the U.S. GDP showed slightly better than expected values but the impact was mild and the pair remained inside a narrow range, with relatively low volatility.



Technical Outlook

Despite the release of important economic indicators, volatility is not restored and price is still trapped inside a range that’s less than 50 pips. Resistance is located at 1.1240 and support at 1.1185, while the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is traveling flat, confirming the lack of determination from either side. Our bias is neutral until a break is confirmed but keep in mind that after a period of inactivity, usually a strong move follows.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT we take a look at the Eurozone inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. The expected change is 0.4% from the previous 0.2% and if this number (or higher) is posted we may see increased volatility, with Euro strength.


GBP/USD

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average appeared to be broken but the better than expected value of the U.S. GDP brought mild strength to the US Dollar and currently support is being tested. Volatility remained low and movement was mixed yesterday.



Technical Outlook

Price breached the 50 period EMA but the bulls failed to capitalize on the break and the pair returned below this dynamic form of resistance. This shows that bearish pressure still exists and, coupled with the overbought condition of the Stochastic, may bring the pair below 1.3000. However, movement remains without clear bias so we don’t exclude a move above the 50 EMA and into the resistance at 1.3070.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Current Account is today’s main event for the Pound; the indicator comes out at 8:30 am GMT and shows the difference between imported and exported goods. A higher value than the forecast -30.5B (previous -32.6) is usually beneficial for the Pound.

At the same time the Final version of the British GDP is released but this is the least important of the three (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final) so we don’t expect major movement; however, higher values than the expected 0.6% usually strengthen the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

FOREX NEWS: DEUTSCHE BANK SETTLEMENT SPECULATION DRIVES SHORT TERM PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s strong move was generated by a possible settlement between Deutsche Bank and the U.S. Department of Justice over a fine for mortgage-backed bonds. The initial settlement sum was reported to be 14 billion US Dollars but later in the day a news agency reported that the sum is likely to be around 5 billion US Dollars.



Technical Outlook

The move into 1.1150 was generated by news that Deutsche Bank is likely to pay a 14 billion USD settlement and the bounce up that followed was triggered by the announcement that only 5.4 billion USD will be possibly paid. From a technical standpoint we note that 1.1150 support rejected price higher as soon as it was touched and also that 1.1240 stopped bullish momentum. Today we will see if price stopped because it encountered resistance or simply because the trading week came to an end; if 1.1240 holds, we will likely see a move into 1.1185, otherwise we expect a climb into the zone around 1.1285.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the calendar is light for the Euro, mostly because German banks will be closed, celebrating German Unity Day.

The US Dollar will be affected by the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 50.4 (previous 49.4). This survey is derived from the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus values above expectations usually are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair reacted to Deutsche Bank news Friday but the effect was almost opposite: the pair initially climbed, just to fall soon after, erasing all gains.



Technical Outlook

The last trading session shows that 1.2945 support is still rejecting falling prices and 1.3000 resistance still rejects rising prices so the pair is mostly ranging. The pair also bounced on the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which together with the level at 1.3000, creates a strong confluence zone and tilts our balance slightly towards the short side.

For today we anticipate another touch of 1.2945 but the Stochastic is crossing upwards and this may generate some bullish action; however, this is not a strong enough reason to believe that we will have a bullish trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, expected to show a value of 52.1. Numbers above this forecast indicate optimism among purchasing managers and usually strengthen the Pound but the impact differs from release to release.

FOREX NEWS: BREXIT BACK IN FOCUS, POUND TAKES A BLOW

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session started slow and remained that way until the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI which showed a value of 51.5, better than the forecast 50.4. Some US Dollar strength was seen at the time but overall volatility was very low.



Technical Outlook

The latest price action shows that 1.1240 still acts as resistance and now the pair is trying to move below the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average. If the rejection at 1.1240 sends price through the 50 EMA and a full candle closes below the line, we expect to see an extended move south, probably back towards 1.1150. As an alternate scenario, a break of 1.1240 will tilt the balance in favour of the bulls, making 1.1285 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will drive the market today because Europe and the United States didn’t schedule important indicators.


GBP/USD

The Pound was severely weakened by talks about a potential deadline for the Brexit, set for March next year. This triggered a strong drop that broke several support levels and took the pair 130 pips lower.



Technical Outlook

The pair is approaching the key level at 1.2796, which is the lowest point reached since the Brexit referendum took place. We expect small retracements to the upside before the level is reached and once price gets there, we expect a stronger move up, based on the fact that both oscillators will be deeply oversold by then. Potential resistance is located at 1.2880.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions in the construction sector. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and usually, numbers above the forecast 49.1 strengthen the Pound but given the current situation, the impact may be muted.

FOREX NEWS: POUND SINKS TO 31-YEAR LOW, SMALL BOUNCE EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday action picked up and the sellers managed to take the pair back into the support at 1.1150. Overall we had a bearish session but price is still in a range.



Technical Outlook

Although the bears advanced into the support at 1.1150, this level is not yet broken so we still consider the pair is in a range and that a move up could very well follow. However, the short term control belongs to the sellers and the oscillators are not oversold so the downside may continue; if this is the case, we expect a break of 1.1130 and a move into 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This report is less important than the government data that comes out Friday, but higher values than the forecast 166K can strengthen the US Dollar nonetheless.


GBP/USD

Fears regarding a “hard” Brexit early next year created another bearish session and the pair reached levels last seen in 1985, breaking the low generated by the Brexit referendum.



Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair had reached a low at 1.2736 but it’s very likely to see further downside by the time you read this. After such a strong drop, we expect a bounce higher and the oversold position of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic supports such a view. A retracement higher is likely to find resistance at the previous level of 1.2796.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the last PMI in the series comes out: the Services PMI. Given the current situation, we don’t expect the release to have a huge impact but under normal circumstances, numbers above the anticipated 52.1 strengthen the Pound.

FOREX NEWS: EURO STILL RANGE BOUND, POUND PRONE FOR ANOTHER DIP

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair stayed inside 1.1150 – 1.1240 channel and bounced from the bottom of the range all the way up. Now rejection is seen at the top of the range.



Technical Outlook

The pair remains in indecision mode and all moves to one side are quickly reversed. It’s very likely that this behaviour will change Friday when the NFP report comes out but today we don’t expect a clean breakout. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat again and the oscillators are going nowhere so for now the pair should be considered in range-mode, capped by 1.1240 resistance and 1.1150 support.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for both the US Dollar and the Euro and this means that price direction will be decided mostly by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The pair bottomed at 1.2685, which is the lowest point in over three decades of trading. Small retracements were seen yesterday but the oscillators are still deep in oversold territory.



Technical Outlook

The pair is in a clear downtrend but due to the overextended condition of price, we consider that a move up is next. This potential move up should be regarded as a normal retracement and may be followed by further downside. For now support sits at 1.2685 and potential resistance around 1.2800; our overall bias is bearish and we don’t exclude another drop without a retracement beforehand.

Fundamental Outlook

Just like the United States and the rest of Europe, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major indicators for today so traders will focus on the technical side.

FOREX NEWS: BRACE FOR IMPACT: NFP REPORT AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair remained inside the channel created by 1.1240 resistance and 1.1150 support, with low volatility and overall a bearish bias. Price is still in range mode be we expect this to change with today’s NFP release.



Technical Outlook

Price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this slightly tilts the balance towards the short side. Keep in mind that the pair is still in range-mode so after the bounce at the upper part of the range, it’s very possible to see a touch of the lower part. The technical aspect will be overshadowed by the NFP release but the levels to watch remain 1.1240 and 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

The highlight of the day is the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change report, also known as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). The indicator tracks changes in the total number of jobs created during the previous month and is widely considered the most important U.S. employment data. Higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar under normal circumstances, thus anything above today’s forecast of 171K, will probably take the pair lower. The time of the release is the usual 12:30 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

After a very small retracement, the pair took another dive and travelled more than 130 pips to the downside, solidifying the control of the bears.



Technical Outlook

The retracement to the upside wasn’t strong enough to clear the overextended condition of the pair so we expect a bigger climb. The overall bias is clearly bearish and the probability of another move south is very high. The pair is in “uncharted” territory (these levels weren’t seen for more than 30 years) so currently there is no clear support level; minor resistance sits around 1.2760.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production is released, showing changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector. The forecast is 0.4% (previous -0.9%) and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the Pound. The NFP release will also have a strong impact on the pair’s movement.

美元步步攀升，金银退败连连

>>一、日内基本面分析

     上周五，美国劳工部具体公布数据如下：美国9月非农就业人口变动15.6万，预期17.2万，前值15.1万。8月非农就业人口由+15.1万修正为+16.7万，7月由+27.5万修正为+25.2万。美国9月失业率5%，预期4.9%，前值4.9%。其中，失业率符合预期，而非农数据略低于预期，数据利空美元，利好黄金。而数据出炉后，美指表现小幅回落，但是10点后又再度反弹，但是夜间再度掉头向下。黄金则表现冲高回落，但是夜间再度反弹。

     全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR黄金投资信托，其持仓情况被视作反映投资者情绪的一个重要指标。随着金价下跌，SPDR黄金投资信托开始加仓，近一个月内共增持7.09吨，由9月8日的951.81吨增加到目前的958.9吨。进入10月，虽然出现过两次增持，10月1日和和6日分别减持1.19吨和0.32吨，但在金价大跌后，最近一个交易日SPDR黄金投资信托大幅增持11.27吨，这一增持幅度创下了9月6日以来的最大增持幅度。市场人士分析认为，金价走低显然并不是来自黄金ETF的实物清盘，而黄金ETF的增持则反映了投资者对黄金的需求并未改变。高盛分析认为，实物黄金ETF的驱动以及对对黄金投资的需求在2016年并未发生大变动，黄金作为对冲风险的投资品的地位并未改变。

     本周关注重点主要在中美两国。中国将公布9月社融规模、新增人民币贷款和货币供应状况，以及9月进出口和贸易帐数据。北京时间周一早上9：00， 美国将迎来特朗普和希拉里的第二场总统辩论。此外美联储主席耶伦和五名联储高管都会发表讲话，周四FOMC还会公布9月会议纪要。欧洲数据相对寡淡，将公布8月欧元区工业产出数据。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告
截止10月4日,英镑投机净空头增加9858份(或11%)至97572份。
黄金投机净多头减少46396份(或16%)至245508份
原油投机净多头增加71330份(或24%)至362976份



>>三、交易策略



XAUUSD：前面已经给出纸黄金长线做多计划和点位，中线杠杆类产品也给出1215一带做多位，短线则顺势做空为主，因为刚刚破位下跌，而非农也没有带动黄金反弹，周线压制下这周还不适合做多，短线依然顺势空，点位方面是重点，阻力方面主要关注两个点，一个是非农1265高点，周初如果反弹肯定要先测试这个点，其二是1277高点，这里是上周二下跌后二次反弹高点，在周线压制下，有这两个阻力够用了，建议周初反弹做空，周五非农冲高回落并下探，日线压制已经不强，暂时不盲目追空，以反弹做空为主，根据下降趋势线，我将做空点位放到1270这里；日内走势，黄金1270空，止损1275，目标1250。



Crude-Oil:上周原油一直在日线基础上不断的回踩上涨，直到周五上涨51附近遇阻回落，日线收线不理想，并且已经非常接近51.6的前高，我不看好直接一次性上破，认为原油还是震荡走势，只不过这种震荡在消息面的逐渐引导下变得很强，现在周线收线还不错，但日线遇阻，操作上必须先跟着日线看空，利用前高51一带阻力先空，后面等周线调整到位再做多，参照上周形态，前面五天全部回踩上升，而周五转跌已经不再强势，形态被破坏的结果会引发周初调整，所以原油周初看空，运气好也许会引发较大幅度调整，幅度问题我们后面一步步跟进；日内走势，美国原油49.8空，止损50.3，目标48.8！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种           方  向         入场区域          支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.1200          1.1100          1.1240
GBPUSD              空         1.2430          1.2310          1.2470
AUDUSD              空         0.7610          0.7500          0.7640  
USDJPY              多         102.60          102.30           103.20
XAUUSD             空         1270.0          1250.0          1275.0
AGUSD              空         17.90           17.00           18.15
Crude-Oil           多         48.50           48.00            50.70  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期           时间         事件                                               重要性          前值       市场预测
10/10        16:30     欧元区10月Sentix投资者信心指数       低               5.6                 6
10/10                      美国哥伦布日： 美国债券市场休市，但美国股市及CME旗下贵金属、原油与外汇合约将正常交易，不受影响。

FOREX NEWS: MPC MEMBER TESTIFIES. POUND PRONE TO SUDDEN MOVES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday we saw the pair bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and drop into the support at 1.1150. The economic calendar was light and overall volatility remained low.



Technical Outlook

The pair is still in range mode, with low volatility; so far the 50 EMA offered good resistance and the bias is slightly bearish as long as price is trading below it. We expect a break of 1.1150 and 1.1130 soon, followed by another move into the next support, located at 1.1100. Today’s price action will be influenced by the German ZEW survey but lately the impact of this indicator has diminished.

Fundamental Outlook

As mentioned above, the day’s most notable release is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is a survey of about 275 German analysts and institutional investors and reflects their optimism regarding a 6-month outlook for German economy. Higher numbers than the forecast 4.2 (previous 0.5) usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

As it was expected, the pair remained between 1.2480 resistance and 1.2227 support yesterday and no major developments took place.



Technical Outlook

The direction remains uncertain and the pair is mostly affected by overall sentiment rather than technical factors. The main bias is bearish and we expect a move closer to 1.2227 support but for the time being we recommend caution because the Pound is prone to unexpected and sudden moves. The Stochastic is overbought, while the Relative Strength Index is oversold, thus showing mixed signals and adding to the overall uncertainty.

Fundamental Outlook

Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Treasury Select Committee today at 9:00 am GMT. His speech may generate irregular movement or may go mostly unnoticed; either way, use caution.

美元指数强劲上行,金价或将再度承压

>>一、日内基本面分析

周二美盘时段，美国公布了9月就业市场状况指数(LMCI)数据。数据显示意外录得负数-2.2，预期值为1.5，同时并把前值由-0.7修正为-1.3。LMCI指数与非农数据关系密切，其对市场的影响与非农类似，当公布值大于预期值，理论上利好美元，利空黄金白银。LMCI趋势通常领先非农增长年率6-12个月，也就是说，非农数据滞后于LMCI指数6-12个月，这意味着LMCI走势对未来非农长期走势有重要参考作用。对于美国就业市场来说，LMCI能准确的反映美国就业市场状况，相比非农就业报告更为准确。因此，目前市场关注的程度在上升。因而数据公布后，市场出现金银上行美元走软的短线波动。

美国总统选举,特朗普身陷”录音门”丑闻令他支持度下跌，民调显示希拉里支持率领先11%。加上上周美国公布非农数据，数据不合预期,市场对加息存疑, 美元有下跌方向，12月加息机会下跌,黄金在从低位移上回补，黄金因此受惠提振。市场多单买入，亦令黄金价格有实质支持。但市场成然观望FOMC的会议纪录,对加息路向希望有更明确指引,外围方面,人民币中间价失守6.7，离岸在岸人民币均收于六年最低位。日元转弱,有利日本出口,美元兑日元重上104以上水平,美元指数在96上动荡。

　　此外，LMCI数据意外录得疲软，但是美联储年内加息预期骤然在升温。昨日美国芝加哥联储主席埃文斯在悉尼的讲话提升了美联储短期内加息的市场预期。埃文斯表示，如果12月美联储加息不会感到惊讶，12月进行加息是可行的，但是最好等到通胀进一步上涨后进行行动，现在美国经济稳健，最近的就业报告也表现不错。美国大选也不是加息障碍，但是愿意等待更多经济数据。受美联储官员依旧加息鹰派言论影响，美国联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储12月加息概率已经升至68.3%，为逾六个月新高。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

截止10月4日,英镑投机净空头增加9858份(或11%)至97572份。
黄金投机净多头减少46396份(或16%)至245508份
原油投机净多头增加71330份(或24%)至362976份



>>三、交易策略



XAUUSD：原则上继续在1265之下看空，但注意这周小震荡下行节奏，在连续下跌之后，1241低点之上多头也许会做最后一搏，还有那么一点机会走反弹，如果突破1265，那么周线级别的下跌时间可能要拉长一些，不过这不重要，反正下跌还没有走完，后面妥妥的看空到1220一带，放心，不反弹要做空，反弹了也还是做空，对于今天操作来说，我认为要有一定的应变能力，比如前低1240一带能不能做多，比如如果反弹突破1265要如何应对，这些我可能都没办法再早评中给出，行情可能性太多，不好下手，这里我给一个相对来说中规中矩的操作点，主要针对当前小震荡下跌行情；日内走势，黄金1258空，止损1262，目标1245-48。



Crude-Oil:昨天之所以没能连续上升，是因为白天的回调幅度深了，本来欧盘回踩51直接上涨，那突破前高就不是问题，美盘连续上升也不是问题，但小时线欧盘冲高回落，美盘其实还是有上升，最终受阻51.5回落，日线转阴，高位还有震荡过程，有前面周一大涨的支撑在，今天回落幅度有限，应该还是维持高位震荡，EIA数据是推迟到周四，那会应该不确定性很高，操作上白天可以回落做多，以短线操作为主，美盘要看时间循环，因为近期美盘一般上升为主，现在日线支撑强，但上升幅度已经很大，并且面临前高阻力，最主要应该还是明天EIA数据，说不定多头就此终结，总之对于数据来说，多空都有机会，今天继续看高位震荡；日内走势，美国原油50.2多，止损49.7，目标51.2！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种             方  向         入场区域          支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.1060          1.0910          1.1090
GBPUSD              空         1.2330          1.2210          1.2370
AUDUSD              空         0.7610          0.7500          0.7640  
USDJPY               多         103.00          102.80           103.80
XAUUSD              空         1270.0          1250.0          1275.0
XAGUSD              空         17.90           17.00           18.15
Crude-Oil             多         50.00           49.50            51.70  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期                时间                事件                                           重要性          前值       市场预测
0/12                                    中国9月新增人民币贷款                    高                  9487亿人民币         10000亿人民币  
10/12                                  中国9月社会融资规模                       高                  14700亿人民币         13188亿人民币
10/12             17:00            欧元区9月工业生产年率                    中                     -0.5%               1.0%  
10/12             17:00             欧元区9月工业生产月率                   低                     -1.1%               1.5%
10/12             19:00              欧佩克及非欧佩克产油国计划召开非正式会议，讨论阿尔及尔协议的实施情况
10/12             20:00             美国纽约联储主席杜德利与纽约州商业理事会进行一场开放媒体采访的谈话

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STRENGTHENED BY FOMC MINUTES, BEARS MAINTAIN CONTROL

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened ahead of the FOMC Meeting minutes and once the document was released, price action became mixed. According to the Minutes, the FOMC members see a rate hike sooner rather than later, so we expect to see more US Dollar strength in the near future.



Technical Outlook

The pair is hovering around the minor support at 1.1025, with both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index in oversold territory. Also, price travelled a long distance without a retracement so we expect small moves up, followed by another drop that will likely reach the support at 1.0960. The hawkish stance of the FOMC strengthens this bias.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator released today is the U.S. Unemployment Claims, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. It shows the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits during the previous week but because it’s frequency is high (weekly), its impact is often mild. Nonetheless, numbers above the forecast 252K are usually detrimental for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair broke immediate support and then retraced higher ahead of the FOMC release, which didn’t generate a clear direction. Overall the Pound is still vulnerable and under bearish pressure.



Technical Outlook

Even if the US Dollar strength generated by the hawkish tone of the FOMC Minutes was not immediately seen, we expect the effect to kick in and to drive the pair lower. For now we have another low created at 1.2090, which will act as support and target for today’s price action. If the pair moves above 1.2227 (1.2230), more bulls will probably join in and will take price higher; however, for the time being our bias remains bearish and moves north are regarded as retracements, not reversals.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech today, at a forum in Birmingham but the exact time of the event is not yet known. This is definitely an event that could spark volatility on Pound related pairs and the lack of information regarding the scheduled time makes it even more “dangerous”.