[分享] 外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

FOREX NEWS: CHANCES OF RETRACEMENTS INCREASE AS BOTH PAIRS ENTER OVERSOLD TERRITORY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Inflation in the United States improved as shown by Friday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (actual 0.2%, forecast 0.1%, previous 0.0%). This strengthened the US Dollar and allowed the pair to drop and reach the support at 1.1150.



Technical Outlook

Friday’s move took the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic close to oversold territory and into the support at 1.1150. This strong move follows a relatively long period of indecision and we expect it to extend beyond 1.1150 but it’s very possible to see a retracement higher or at least sideways movement before further bearish advances. The levels to watch today are 1.1130 as support and 1.1185 as resistance; of course, the current 1.1150 level will have a major role to play in today’s price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will take centre stage today because there are no notable indicators on the economic calendar for either the Euro or the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened tremendously Friday and dropped for more than 250 pips on the back of speculation that Britain may give up membership of the single market of the European Union. This coupled with positive U.S. inflation data triggered the break of several support levels.



Technical Outlook

Friday we saw the break of 1.3175 and 1.3070, both levels that acted as strong support in the past; this clearly puts the bears in control but a strong move is often followed by a retracement to the opposite side. The Relative Strength Index is oversold and the Stochastic is quickly approaching that condition, making us anticipate a bounce higher or at least sideways movement. We may see price move slowly below 1.3000 (which acts as strong psychological support) but a small retracement should soon follow.

Fundamental Outlook

Same as the US Dollar and the Euro, the Pound is not affected today by major economic news releases. This may generate a slow and ranging trading session.

FED议会在即，市场波动收窄

>>一、日内基本面分析

美国数据显示，美国8月CPI月率增长0.2%，预期为0.1%，年率由前值的0.8%升至1.1%;8月核心CPI月率增长0.3%，预期为0.2%;年率也好于预期为2.3%。通胀数据的良好表现表明美国通胀状况稳健。美联储年内的升息概率也由此前的47.5%上升至51.2%。本周市场的重心转向美联储利率决议，尽管本次加息基本是无望的，可一旦声明表现鹰派的话，12月加息将会有希望，那么届时黄金必定还会遭重创。今日数据清淡，关注美国9月NAHB房价指数。

  市场中交投谨慎的情绪明显是非常强烈的，因为不仅仅是美联储在周四凌晨的利率决议，市场对于周三公布的日本央行利率决议也是十分期待。因为最近日元走势和避险情绪挂钩的程度比较高。对于美联储的利率决议也好还要日本央行的利率决议也罢，别去猜测到底是加息还是不加息，这样的消息坦白说和开大小是一个道理。那么多机构都不能预测的，咱们就多省省心直接去等等公布后在去操作比较好。我们能分析的就是加息或者不加息对于后市的影响，而在这之前预计黄金价格难有较大波动。我们也能观察到黄金波动暂时是处于比较谨慎的态度，就短线来看黄金是在1308-10附近存在震荡筑底的走势。不过上方的阻力压制也很强烈在于1318-20附近位置，这里不站上黄金也难说反弹。昨天的评论中我们已经提到了在重要消息公布之前黄金可能会出现空头的获利回吐导致黄金的上涨，目前也是这个态度。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

欧元投机净空头减少11155份(或12%)至81475份
加元投机净多头减少3847份(或18%)至17058份
原油投机净多头增加27507份(或10%)至313302份



>>三、交易策略



XAUUSD：上周开始已经是小波动，慢节奏的行情了，这周既然调整还在延续，那么这种规律也还会延续，至少周四之前不会改观，做一名主动适应行情的投资者，话说不适应也没办法，要不然你主动放弃？日线周一小阳收线，现在维持上下都有一定空间，往上可以测试1321和1328阻力，下方1306和1302支撑，意味着多空做进去都是方向选择问题，风险大，收益不成正比，建议尽量等，现在小时线昨天有一定反弹迹象，虽然力度不怎么样，但今天可能延续，或者看是否还有冲高动作，固定点位下单，等反弹1320-23区域空，如果行情直接下跌，再调整做空思路；日内走势，黄金1322空，止损1328，目标1310。



Crude-Oil:短线面临反弹，从前面47.7开始下跌，到上周42.7，下跌幅度够大，本来是看好周初直接跌向41一带，但昨天上涨已经突破下降趋势线，意味着下跌趋 缓，凌晨交割倒是影响不大，日线和周线来看空头压制很强，现在上周四高点44.3还没有上破，暂时谈不上结束下跌，但要注意短线反弹的可能性，原 油现在情况是短线可能反弹，但周线调整没有结束，操作上其实等反弹做空是可以，但如果真走反弹，那么空就要等很久，或者错过反弹利润，我决定 今天用前面低点，以及下降趋势线的被突破，来尝试做多一次，仅仅是一次做多尝试，认为即使反弹不成，行情要横盘下跌，也有震荡过程，今天布局 多单，即使不涨上去，也应该不会对后面做空形成被动影响；日内走势，美国原油43.3多，止损42.8，目标44.3、45！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种              方  向      入场区域       支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.1220          1.1100          1.1260
GBPUSD              空         1.3080          1.3250          1.3430
AUDUSD              空         0.7580          0.7460          0.7610  
USDJPY               空         102.30          101.00           102.60
XAUUSD              空         1318.0          1300.0          1322.0
XAGUSD              空         19.45           18.80           19.70
Crude-Oil             多         43.30           42.80           45.20  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期              时间              事件                                                重要性          前值       市场预测
9/20               09:30         澳储行公布9月货币政策会议纪要
09/20             20:30         美国8月新屋开工月率                          中                2.1%              -1.7%
09/20             20:30          美国8月营建许可月率                         中               -0.1%              2.5%

FOREX NEWS: FED RATE AND PRESS CONFERENCE: THE MARKET REACHES A BOILING POINT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair completed a retracement that reached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and soon after, it started to descend. No major advances were made and price returned below 1.1185.



Technical Outlook

The 50 period EMA offered good resistance yesterday and pushed price lower almost immediately after being touched. This shows us that the bears are in control of short term price action and strengthens our view that 1.1150 support will be touched or even broken in the near future. The oscillators are no longer oversold so the pair is free to move to either side but today we have a cluster of Fed announcements and these will be the main market mover.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce the interest rate which is not expected to change from the current <0.50% and at the same time the FOMC will release a Rate Statement, detailing the reasons that determined the rate vote.

Also at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC Economic Projections come out, containing economic growth and inflation expectations for the next 2 years. Half an hour later, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference discussing the rate decision and answering journalists’ questions; usually this is the most volatile time of the day because the US Dollar is very responsive to Yellen’s attitude and answers. Often price movement is irregular as traders around the world try to interpret her words, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

After a brief pullback to the upside, the pair continued its travel south and broke the support at 1.3000. This is an important victory for the bears, which solidifies their medium term control and opens the door for additional downside movement.



Technical Outlook

It seems like the next medium term target is the support located around 1.2880 but we must note the oversold condition of both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index. This means that we may see a move back up, towards the recently broken 1.3000 but today’s price direction will be mainly decided by the U.S. events so the technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesn’t hold any Pound-affecting indicators today but the Fed meeting and rate announcement will have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement.

本帖最后由 tradefx9 于 2016-9-22 08:49 PM 编辑

日央行采取额外行动，美联储加息按兵不动

>>一、日内基本面分析

   北京时间周四(9月22日)凌晨，全球金融市场密切关注的美联储9月政策决议最终出台。此次会议显示，美联储以7：3的投票结果"暂时"维持利率不变，其中乔治、梅斯特和罗森格伦支持加息，17位政策制定者中有14位预计年底前至少升息一次，并指出经济近期风险看来"大致均衡"。结果正如市场之前预期的一样，美联储决定在9月维持联邦基金利率不变。

　会后美联储发表声明：指出当前美国就业市场继续增强，就业增长稳健，自上半年经济活动已经加快。暗示经济已经回暖，长期GDP增速预期为1.8%，6月预期为2%。之后将继续密切关注通胀和全球形势发展，预计经济只能保证渐进式加息。因此美联储决定暂时等待一段时间，等候更多数据证明加息的必要性。对此市场投资者普遍认为美联储预计2016年年底前将加息一次；2017年加息两次，从6月时的三次有所下调；预计2018年加息3次。

   日央行周三公布最新利率决议，决定保持负利率在-0.1%以及资产购买规模不变，放弃基础货币目标转而引入的“收益率曲线控制”机制，即通过购买长期国债以保持10年期国债收益率在零水平附近。为达到通胀目标，日央行以长期利率为目标的措施可谓又是一大创举，市场在初闻该措施后认为这是日央行进一步扩大宽松的努力，日元当时迅速贬值。令市场困惑的日央行新政策下日元周三短线走弱后大幅走强，加之后来的美联储利率决议进一步打压美元，美元/日元周三可谓背负受敌。技术上美元/日元再次受到阻于6月份以来下行压力线回落，目前即将考验关键支持100，如果有效跌破该水平预计将打开进一步下行空间。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

欧元投机净空头减少11155份(或12%)至81475份
加元投机净多头减少3847份(或18%)至17058份
原油投机净多头增加27507份(或10%)至313302份



>>三、交易策略

XAUUSD：连接昨天低点1308和1320，趋势线支撑是1329，日线大阳支撑1320是妥妥的支撑点，今天甚至这周都不可能下破了，而凌晨回踩1320上升，有二次回踩1327的动作，当时利率决议行情已经基本走完，后面耶伦陆续讲话，形成震荡，这个点是今天行情的支撑点，因为现在价格1334距离1320很远，我不可能让你在1320之上多，这没有操作性，我会直接告诉你在1327之上做多，能简单的事情我绝不复杂，一定要复杂那我就一步一步完成，这才是我的风格，昨晚下探回升并回踩过1327位置，在日线大阳支撑下，今天必定是个上升走势，或者高位震荡修正，记得九月初非农后一周我疯狂做多看破1330吗？想想现在行情跟那会是不是有点像？唯一不一样的可能是现在做多方向更明确，所以不多说，继续做多，激进去多，反正是妥妥的上升行情，那就抢在别人前面做多，然后让别人来给你抬轿；日内走势，黄金现价1333多，止损1327，目标1340、1345。



Crude-Oil:这周原油开始递阶式反弹，有点让我意外，因为周评原油我是看空到41一带的，现在属于提前上涨，不过周一上升之后，周二交割完我早评是尝试性做多看涨的，这个上升我抓住了，也就意味着本周最大的一波上升利润被我抓住，是的，周二美盘的上升肯定是本周最大的上涨，尽管今天才周四，但你看看昨晚EIA利好后的上涨，涨起来有气无力，最后好不容易隔夜上升了，现在原油是大震荡行情，其实黄金白银也是，无论是上涨还是下跌都会一波走完，延续性很强，比如上周跌了一周，这周涨了一周，这是一个道理，日线中阳对今天行情提供支撑，但昨晚上升没力度，所以今天回落才可以多，并且注意46一带也许可以尝试做空，操作方面我也确实会给个做空位置，算是尝试吧；日内走势，美国原油46空，止损我46.5，目标45！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种              方  向       入场区域        支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.1220          1.1100          1.1260
GBPUSD              空         1.3060          1.2910          1.3100
AUDUSD              空         0.7630          0.7500          0.7660  
USDJPY               多         100.30          100.00           102.60
XAUUSD              多         1320.0          1315.0          1340.0
XAGUSD              空         19.50            19.20           20.10
Crude-Oil            多         45.30            44.80           46.70  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期              时间              事件                                           重要性                   前值       市场预测
09/22            20:30          美国上周续请失业金人数                  中                     214.3万            214.3万
09/22            20:30         美国上周初请失业金人数                   中                     26万               26.1万
09/22            22:00          美国8月谘商会领先指标月率            中                     0.4%                0.0%
09/22            21:00          欧央行行长德拉吉在欧洲系统风险管理委员会会议上发表讲话

怎么完全没有人留言

FOREX NEWS: BULLS FIGHT BACK, US DOLLAR ERASES ALL WEEKLY GAINS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Traders showed buying interest yesterday and the pair climbed for almost the entire session, moving strongly above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and breaking the resistance at 1.1240.



Technical Outlook

The gains obtained by the US Dollar during the previous days were erased and now the pair has returned to a zone where it spent a lot of time ranging in the past. There is no clear trend and although the latest impulse is bullish, we can see a reversal at any time, especially now that the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are approaching overbought. These are the main reasons why we expect downside movement today, possibly into the 50 period EMA. However, if 1.1240 turns into support, we may see a touch of 1.1285.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:30 am GMT, Germany will release their Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes and although these are not high-impact indicators, they are the only notable ones for today so we may see some movement generated. The former indicator is expected to show a value of 53.2, the latter, 52.2 and higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakness seen after the Fed Meeting extended throughout yesterday’s trading session and the Pound bulls managed to take price above resistance, keeping control for most of the day.



Technical Outlook

Now the pair is testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the way price behaves here will determine the next direction. A close above the EMA will possibly trigger a move into the next potential resistance, located at 1.3175, while a bounce lower will likely take price into 1.3070 again. The Stochastic has crossed its 80 mark, showing signs of overbought and this increases the chances of a move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The entire week has been slow in terms of economic releases that can affect the Pound directly and today is no exception, thus the technical side will be the most important.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

FOREX NEWS: ECB’S DRAGHI TO TESTIFY BEFORE THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT. EURO PREPARES FOR MAJOR SWINGS


EUR/USD

Forex News: German Manufacturing and Services data released Friday was mixed, with the former showing a better than expected value, while the latter disappointed. The pair dropped, then erased the loss but couldn’t surpass resistance.



Technical Outlook

Friday we saw an almost perfect bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this shows that there’s buying interest and that price may surpass 1.1240. If this is the case, the climb may extend into the next resistance, located at 1.1285 but otherwise, 1.1185 will be the probable destination. Mario Draghi’s testimony may have a strong impact on today’s price action and it’s possible to see ranging movement ahead of the event.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a busier Monday than usual, with 2 important events: at 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate comes out, with an expected value of 106.3, little changed from the previous 106.2. This survey has a huge sample size of about 7,000 German businesses and asks respondents to give their assessment of current economic conditions as well as a 6-month outlook. Higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.

At 3:05 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. This is a high-impact speech and depending on his attitude and answers, the event may trigger strong movement thus we recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

Friday the bears stepped in and erased all previous Pound gains, thus confirming that the pair is in a short-to-medium term downtrend. Support is still holding for the time being.



Technical Outlook

After piercing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the pair bounced and moved 200 pips lower, breaching the support at 1.2945. This shows that we are still in a downtrend but the 4-hour candle that breached support shows a long lower wick, which is a clear sign of rejection. This is a good enough reason to believe that price is likely to climb into the zone around 1.3000 but overall, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have anything major on today’s Pound calendar so the technical aspect will prevail.

FOREX NEWS: TIMID ADVANCES AND INDECISION AHEAD OF U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro got an early boost yesterday from a better than anticipated German IFO Business Climate Survey (forecast 106.3, actual 109.5) and the pair managed to break 1.1240. However, volatility remained low and the pair didn’t travel a long distance in terms of pips. Draghi’s testimony was shifted one hour earlier but it didn’t have a huge impact on the Euro.



Technical Outlook

The current move is likely to extend into the resistance at 1.1285 but if the oscillators will become overbought by that time, we expect the pair to reverse and move back into 1.1240. Although the direction is pretty well defined, the distance travelled is small and this means that the move is fragile, thus a reversal is more likely; however, as long as the pair remains above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding economic conditions in general. Usually, numbers above the forecast 98.6 strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is not very high.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair moved again below the support at 1.2945 but the bears couldn’t make any substantial advances and overall we had a ranging trading session.



Technical Outlook

The pair bounced twice at 1.2915, so this level can now be considered short term support and we can expect it to reject price in the future. For today we expect bullish price action, with 1.3000 as target; this bias is given by the fact that the bears are having difficulties breaking 1.2915 and the oscillators are close to oversold, turning upwards. If 1.3000 holds or if price starts to move downwards before that level is reached, we expect a touch of 1.2880 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t prepare any major economic releases for today so the focus will be on the technical side and the U.S. Consumer survey.

美大选辩论热闹，远不及国内炒房产

>>一、日内基本面分析

   日本央行7月会议记录显示，委员们一致认为通胀预期最近下降，委员们均认为，日本经济活动和物价面临的风险偏向下档，部分委员称日本通胀预期容易受到外部因素的影响，比如油价下跌和海外经济成长减速，一些委员称日本央行应扩大ETF购买，因海外经济不确定性可能影响企业和消费者信心，委员们同意鉴于物价前景的不确定性，央行应在9月进行全面评估。

   美联储卡什卡利称，若通胀超过目标，美联储会采取相应的政策工具；9月不加息是正确的；过低的通胀风险大于过高的通胀风险；若通胀上行，预计美联储将加息；将密切关注通胀、通胀预期和失业率；美国劳动力市场不充分，加息前还需等待时日。此外，美联储卡普兰亦表示，美联储在升息问题上应有耐心，但他担忧金融稳定，曾对9月升息感到放心，不怎么担忧出现经济过热，更担心低利率导致经济失真，美国经济并未出现过热，愿意保持耐心等待更长一段时间，加息路径将较以往更加平坦。卡普兰：对金融市场压注美联储加息时间一事并不感到担忧，这些预期改变得很快，美联储正密切关注商业不动产领域，追逐回报影响了资产配置，对影子金融体系心存担忧。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

截止9月20日,英镑投机净空头减少24135份(或29%)至58686份
瑞郎投机净多头增加7065份(或524%)至8413份
澳元投机净多头减少29619份(或81%)至6848份



>>三、交易策略



XAUUSD：日线下跌已经开始，当前行情，甚至未来相当一段时间的行情，都会以震荡为主，从1375开始的调整确实走得很难，正因为下跌难，所以年线肯定要收好，说明下半年或者明年就还要涨，黄金和白银都是这个套路，短线操作上，昨晚下跌后横盘无反弹，说明多头确实没有反手的能力，下方能看到的支撑是1320，但调整已经启动，与前面上升一样，下跌也会一波到底，这种情况下看支撑基本没有用，我们要做的就是顺势空，不管反不反弹都是空，现在行情弱势，下跌后无反弹，操作上面临是否直接做空的问题，等反弹做空等来的可能是踏空，建议小反弹开空；日内走势，黄金1328空，止损1333，目标1320、1315。



Crude-Oil:确实没想到原油的这种反复性变得这么强，周五大跌，周一大涨，然后昨天又是连续回落，整个行情都是过山车，真是惊险刺激吧？人生大起大落都在原油里面吧？尽管我并不确定昨天会大跌，但我知道周一上涨不过周五高点，那么昨天就应该利用这样的高点位置做空，最终45.8空在昨天最高点，美盘下跌44.2，有没有赚大？接下来行情继续看震荡下行吧，因为周一反弹不破高，昨天下跌却是破低的，这种情况下顺着行情看震荡下行是比较好的选择，但操作上要等反弹空，牛皮糖一样的震荡下跌；日内走势，美国原油45.5空，止损46，目标44！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种            方  向         入场区域       支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.1220          1.1100          1.1260
GBPUSD              空         1.3030          1.2910          1.3060
AUDUSD              空         0.7680          0.7500          0.7720  
USDJPY              多         100.30          100.00           102.60
XAUUSD              多         1320.0          1315.0          1340.0
XAGUSD              空         19.20           18.80           19.50
Crude-Oil             多         44.30           44.00            46.70  

>>四、日内消息提醒

  日期             时间          事件                                                     重要性             前值       市场预测
09/28            20:30    美国8月耐用品订单月率初值                        高                4.4%               -1.5%  
09/28            20:30    美国8月耐用品订单月率初值（除运输外）    中               1.3%               -0.5%  
09/28            22:30    美国上周EIA原油库存变化                            高              -620万桶           275.3万桶
09/28            22:00    美联储主席耶伦在众议院金融服务委员会就银行监管作证词

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. GDP – VOLATILITY RESTORED?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Surprisingly, Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony didn’t generate a lot of action yesterday and the pair remained confined in a small range. Support was touched and price bounced immediately but the up move soon faded.



Technical Outlook

The pair remains in a range and neither bulls nor bears seem interested to take clear control and to break a notable level. The bounce seen at 1.1185 that failed to continue through 1.1240 resistance confirms the indecision we talked about. For today we expect some downside movement, following the failed attempt to break resistance but if 1.1185 is not broken decisively, we expect another move up.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT we take an early look into German inflation with the release of the Preliminary version of their Consumer Price Index. This is considered a high impact indicator and usually numbers above the forecast 0.0% change are beneficial for the Euro.

Half an hour later, at 12:30 pm GMT the Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product comes out, expected to show a change of 1.3% (previous 1.1%). This is an overall gauge of economic performance but the Final version is the least important so the impact may be limited; usually numbers above expectations trigger US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Yesterday we had another uneventful trading session, with price confined in a tight range. The pair moved almost sideways, between 1.3000 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

The last few four-hour candles show wicks in both their upper and lower parts, which is a clear sign of indecision but this type of behaviour is often followed by a strong breakout. The Stochastic is slowly approaching overbought and the 50 period EMA offers some resistance so far; these are bearish signs and if today the bulls cannot break the moving average, we expect a bounce lower, possibly into 1.2945.

Fundamental Outlook

Same as the entire week so far, the economic calendar for the Pound is light today so traders will turn their attention towards the technical side and the U.S. GDP.