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美元难脱黑色魔咒，9月加息纸上谈兵

>>一、日内基本面分析

       美国劳工部(DOL)周五(9月2日)公布的数据显示，美国8月非农就业人数仅仅增加15.1万人，低于市场预期的增加18.0万人，同时薪资增速放缓，应验了此前市场传言的8月“黑色魔咒”。数据显示，美国8月非农就业人数增加15.1万人，远超市场预期增加18.0万人，前值增加25.5万人；美国8月份失业率为4.9%，预期为4.8%，前值为4.9%。美国劳工部还将7月非农就业人数修正为增加27.5万人。从数据的综合来看，8月非农数表现没有部分媒体和财经网站描述的那么差劲，8月非农就业人数增加15.1万人，但是7月上修两万，如果加上这两万，8月总的增加了17.1万，与预期18万相比只是有所放缓，再说这次公布的不是最终结果，下次说不定会上修，所以，投资者不要那么悲观。

     周五(9月2日)美国公布另外一个重要的数据，美国7月工厂新订单录得九个月来最大增幅，因需求普遍增加，给陷于困境的制造业带来一线希望。美国商务部(DOC)公布，7月工厂订单较上月增加1.9%，预估为增加2.0%，6月下修后为下降1.8%，前值为下降1.5%。美国7月耐用品订单确认后较前月增长4.4%，前值为增长4.4%。美国7月扣除运输的工厂订单较前月增加0.2%，6月为环比增加0.4%。美国7月扣除飞机非国防资本耐用品订单环比修正值为增加1.5%，这部分订单被视为能反映企业信心和支出计划。美国7月扣除国防的耐用品订单修正值月率增长3.7%，前值增长3.8%。美国7月扣除运输的耐用品订单修正值月率较前月增加1.3%，前值为增加1.5%。从结果来看，此次数据表现不及预期，但各方面需求普遍出现增长，其中制造业商品新订单在连续两个月的下跌后首次反弹1.9%，创2015年10月以来最大增幅，帮助此次美国工厂订单月率录得9个月以来最大增幅，为此前陷入低迷的美国制造业带来了一次曙光。

　有关黄金ETF持仓数据，德国商业银行在周四(9月1日)发布的报告中称，持有实物黄金来支撑股价的全球黄金ETF在周三的减仓达到11.3吨，为三周以来最多的一日，SPDR网站显示单日最大减仓为12.17吨。彭博追踪的数据显示，黄金ETF在8月的增仓只有13.7吨，是4月以来增仓最少的一月。但白银的情况则很不一样，8月ETF增仓白银达361吨，是3月以来最多的。除了一月份之外，目前为止，白银今年每月都增仓。另外，钯金和铂金ETF8月也录得减仓，其中钯金ETF月度减仓为11.9万盎司，是今年来最高的。黄金ETF减仓很正常，就是规避美联储年底加息风险，从目前的情况看，年内加息的希望不确定性风险增加，可能会刺激黄金ETF重新加仓。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

欧元投机净空头减少15850份(或17%)至76658份
瑞郎投机净头寸转为净多,由净空1545份转为净多1885份
加元投机净头寸转为空头,由净多12473份转为净空16734份



>>三、交易策略



XAUUSD：黄金周初阻力点应该放到1340一带，因为前一周周五冲高1342回落，这个大家看看图表就知道，我认为现在形态对多头再怎么有利，前面1330-60区域形成了两周的震荡，无论如何多头不可能一次性有效反转，想想真上去了不是给那些套牢盘解套机会嘛，行情又不傻，真正傻的肯定是我们这些普通投资者，所以千万不要认为行情反转，这是瞎扯，走一步看一步才是真的，周四开始形成低点，周五非农再回踩上升，那么周初顺势看涨就可以，而且很明显，周五一次性冲高1330，位置其实刚好是前面1356-1342高点连线，受阻之后回落1316再卷土重来，从这一点来看多头其实在非农有所克制，不然大可以直接测试1342的阻力，正因为周五没有测试，回踩1316上升较为稳固，所以周初看涨要在1316之上直接多，目标1335和1340，到时候再考虑前面1330-60震荡区域找高点空；日内走势，黄金1322多，止损1316，目标1335、1340！



Crude-Oil:从39上涨到49用了两周，从49到43也是两周，上周一度以为39-41的上升趋势线具备一定支撑效果，盘中我们有激进尝试多，同时也提示大家有可能破，保守那天是放弃操作，最后的结果是跌破该趋势线下行，五个交易日前面连续四天下跌，只有周五形成一定反弹，现在周线中阴压制，周五的反弹不足以形成反转，暂时性支撑的效果放到这周完全不起作用，大周期周线级别看，既然不是完整的上升，那么就是大级别震荡，大到不是日线，而是周线，现在周线压制下，周初如果反弹可以放空，位置是450-46区域，下方跌破41的概率不是很大，因为一旦跌破再上去就难了，但你知道原油40下方应该是相对的低位了，所以这周行情41-46区间波动不会错的，可能你会觉得我区间给得大，但其实不然，上周从47.5下跌到43，4.5美金左右的波动，这周处于下跌和结束下跌之间，给到5美金的波动应该是刚刚好，不一定要死等一定给到位置操作，接近就可以尝试交易，另外注意盘中的信号；日内走势，美国原油43.6-45.3区间操作。

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种              方  向       入场区域         支撑位            压力位  
EURUSD              空          1.1170          1.1000          1.1210
GBPUSD              空          1.3330          1.3100          1.3360
AUDUSD              空          0.7620          0.7450          0.7660  
USDJPY              空          104.30          103.00          104.70
XAUUSD              空          1330.0          1315.0          1335.0
XAGUSD              空          19.40           18.70           19.70
Crude-Oil            空          44.20           42.00           44.60  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期       时间         事件                                              重要性        前值        市场预测
09/05      16:30    英国8月服务业采购经理人指数           中           47.4            50
09/05      16:30    英国8月综合采购经理人指数              中           47.5            50.8
09/05      16:30    欧元区9月Sentix投资者信心指数        低           4.25
09/05      17:00    欧元区7月零售销售年率                     中           1.6%            1.8%
09/05                   中国      G20集团领导人第十一次峰会，第二日(9月4-5日)

市场干扰因素众多，汇市整体走势飘忽

>>一、日内基本面分析

    因受美国劳动节假期休市影响，昨日金价波幅缩窄，全日维持开盘价附近3-4美元区间上落。市场本身对于8月非农报告充满期待，因为纯看就业市场，美国初请失业金人数，连续77个星期低过30万关口；最近一次的“小非农”ADP亦好过预期，所以若结果符合预期，相信9月加息一次无可异议。但是就业报告最终没有延续前两月的靓丽表现，录得15万人的增长，并且小时工资增长，失业率均不及预期，令得9月加息可能性基本得以排除，支持金价从低位反弹。

　　美联储具有投票权的十位，按近期表态来看，大部分对于美国经济持正面看法，耶伦保持一贯的中间派作风，布拉德则稍微偏鸽派，但不难发现表态的官员都有提及重点关注美国就业市场，暗示美联储现在加息着眼点偏重于非农报告，那么此后与就业相关数据重要性势必会被放大，市场也倾向于关注更多就业数据来预期美联储加息路径。9月加息排除的因素在被慢慢消化，短线来看利于金价反弹。由于全球经济运行仍然有很多不确定因素，摩根大通最新的报告中将布伦特和WTI原油第三季度末价格预期分别下调至每桶40和38美元。8月13日的报告曾预计布伦特和WTI原油第三季度末价格分别为每桶50和49美元。未来油价的下行，或使得金银价格短线多头很难大幅增加。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

欧元投机净空头减少15850份(或17%)至76658份
瑞郎投机净头寸转为净多,由净空1545份转为净多1885份
加元投机净头寸转为空头,由净多12473份转为净空16734份



>>三、交易策略



XAUUSD：黄周一在1322-1328区间震荡，没能突破1330小高点，今天继续看涨，目标1335和1340，到位后再注意盘中强势，考虑做空，操作上昨天1322多单减仓后持有，周评就是给的1322的多单，昨天周一亚盘小回落给到位置，因为美盘休市，所以昨天欧盘在1330下方获利减仓，今天继续持有多单，还是看破1330，今天如果回落1322-25区域还是多，始终坚持在1316之上看多黄金，因为昨天震荡今天做多位置可能不是很好给，继续在昨天震荡的基础上看多，点位我给一个相对中性的位置；日内走势，黄金1324多，止损1320，目标1335、1340。



Crude-Oil:在消息面影响下，周一原油欧盘拉升，但周评我已经给出了原油本周41-46的区间波动，目前最高反弹46.5，有一些突破了46，但不影响，如果周初先反弹那么肯定是空，原因很简单，上周连续跌了四天，完了周五才出小反弹，这样的走势，即使消息面影响也不可能持续，日线和周线的压力摆在眼前，盘中46.3做空顺势止盈在45.3，10个点利润到手，美盘回落43.9多再吃一波反弹，多空都是赚，节奏把握到位，现在随着日线的冲高回落，周初反弹应该已经到位了，或者没有到位今天也是这么看，要真的还会上升，那明天再改多，我个人认为这种概率不高，我认为周初反弹已经结束，当然周一反弹幅度大，现在先看二次下探43一带即可；日内走势，美国原油45.1空，止损45.6，目标44、43！

]GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种              方  向       入场区域         支撑位            压力位  
EURUSD              空          1.1170          1.1000          1.1210
GBPUSD              空          1.3330          1.3100          1.3360
AUDUSD              空          0.7620          0.7450          0.7660  
USDJPY               多          103.30          103.00          104.50
XAUUSD              空          1330.0          1315.0          1335.0
XAGUSD              空          19.60           18.90           19.80
Crude-Oil            空          45.80           42.50           46.20  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期       时间         事件                                                        重要性        前值        市场预测
09/06      17:00    欧元区第二季度GDP年率终值                       中           1.6%           1.6%  
09/06      17:00   欧元区第二季度GDP季率终值                        低            0.3%           0.3%  
09/06      21:45   美国8月Markit服务业采购经理人指数终值     低           50.9  
09/06      21:45   美国8月Markit综合采购经理人指数终值        低            51.5  
09/06      22:00    美国8月ISM非制造业指数                            高            55.5           55  
09/06      22:00   美国8月就业市场状况指数                           低              1  
09/06      22:00    美国9月IBD/TIPP经济乐观指数                   低             48.4           48.1

加息步伐持续放缓，金价上升稳如泰山

>>一、日内基本面分析

        昨晚美盘时段同时公布了美国8月就业市场状况指数(LMCI)及美国8月ISM非制造业PMI重要数据；具体显示，美国8月ISM非制造业PMI录得51.4，大幅不及预期，预期为55，前值为55.5；美国8月就业市场状况指数(LMCI)录得-0.7，大幅不及预期，预期为0，前值为1。由于数据双双大幅低于预期的表现，使得美元指数受挫大幅下跌，突破95美元关口，最低触及94.60附近。美元指数持续乏力则给贵金属市场带来了反弹的动力。黄金成功站稳1330上方，最高触及1350附近，是否能继续上行，上方1350将是重要阻力区域。

   相对美国8月ISM非制造业PMI数据而言市场更关注美国8月就业市场状况指数(LMCI)。因为该数据是美联储统计的第二份反应美国就业市场的指数，可以更好的帮助市场了解近期经济中工资、就业和相关的数据影响。美联储曾经表示该数据指标比非农更好的反应出劳动力市场的真实状况，其对市场的影响与非农相似。因此，昨晚LMCI的公布结果表现不及预期，将会使美联储加息决策更加谨慎，进一步打压市场对美联储9月以及年内加息的预期，继续施压美元，提振非美货币和贵金属。

   澳洲联储维持利率目标在1.5%不变，澳洲联储会后称，澳元升值可能令经济调整复杂化，维持政策不变与可持续的经济增长相符，全球经济以低于平均的速度成长，中国成长速度似乎温和，在8月降息后，视为持稳的政策与持续性成长情况一致，数据显示澳大利亚经济整体增长持续，全球货币政策仍明显宽松，在一段时间内通胀料持续偏低，劳动市场数据好坏不一，预计就业将持续成长，过去年一来房价已温和上扬，澳洲经济持续成长，未来几年将持续有大量的公寓供给。亚洲早盘澳元获得支持强势反弹，美元小幅走弱。英国脱欧大臣戴维斯表示，英国脱欧公投之后，并未试图延迟脱欧进程；并未试图举行第二轮公投；英国脱欧意味着与欧盟开启新关系；确保在英国脱欧后获得最自由的贸易协定至关重要；需努力与欧盟构建活力、建设性以及健康的关系。英镑小幅上扬。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

欧元投机净空头减少15850份(或17%)至76658份
瑞郎投机净头寸转为净多,由净空1545份转为净多1885份
加元投机净头寸转为空头,由净多12473份转为净空16734份



>>三、交易策略



XAUUSD：黄周现在价位1350，不要追多了，昨天涨了一天基本到位，这就是一天爆发的行情，不然从突破1330开始，到美盘在1342一带应该会暂时停滞，这样今天还有机会干多，直接上涨1352，意味着上升空间没有了，当然在日线大阳支撑下，今天看回调空间也有限，从昨天的上升来看，美盘在1340一带有过短暂停留，这一带还是可以作为今天的支撑来用，那么上方1355尝试做空，下方1340一带支撑，预计在日线大阳之后，黄金将有一个高位震荡过程，当震荡来操作，高空低多处理，区间锁定在1340-55区域，今天按照这个区间交易胜算大；日内走势，黄金1340-55区间内高空低多。



Crude-Oil:在上周连跌四天，周五小反弹收线之后，这周反弹做空的思路就已经固定，所有当周一拉升时，有了我们46.3的空单，周二有了45.5最高点的空单，昨晚最低下跌43.8位置，所有空单全部赚大，我们将本周区间锁定在41-46，周初反弹做空为主，现在反弹的46目标已经实现，下一步考虑会不会跌破上周43低点？个人认为周一反弹幅度大，虽然因消息面影响，但对于看空来说始终还是一个槛，所以依然维持看空思路，但能不能下跌到41待定，今天已经周三，晚间的EIA数据料将对短线涨跌形成较大影响，关键点应该在这里，从整个技术形态看，今天跌破43的可能性不大，上方46.5突破的可能性也小，高低点之间应该还有震荡过程，所以区间操作；日内走势，美国原油43.5-45.8区间操作！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种               方  向       入场区域       支撑位            压力位  
EURUSD              空          1.1270          1.1100          1.1300
GBPUSD              空          1.3450          1.3300          1.3490
AUDUSD              空          0.7680          0.7500          0.7710  
USDJPY               空          102.30          101.00          102.60
XAUUSD              多          1346.0          1341.0          1360.0
XAGUSD              多          19.60           19.30           20.40
Crude-Oil            空          45.80           42.50           46.20  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期         时间                  事件                                     重要性         前值        市场预测
09/07      09:30      澳大利亚第二季度GDP年率                高            3.1%           3.3%  
09/07      09:30     澳大利亚第二季度GDP季率                 中            1.1%           0.6%
09/07      16:30     英国7月制造业生产年率                     中            0.9%           1.7%  
09/07      16:30    英国7月工业生产年率                         中            1.6%           1.9%
09/07      22:00    加拿大9月央行利率决议                      高            0.50%          0.50%

本帖最后由 tradefx9 于 2016-9-8 08:04 PM 编辑

欧洲宽松政策不变，金价再迎利好消息

>>一、日内基本面分析

   昨日有两位美联储委员发言，均表明了较为鹰派的立场。旧金山联储主席威廉姆斯在讲话中称，美国经济现状良好且朝着正确方向前进，认为逐渐加息合理且宜早不宜迟，他认为加息等待过久，会带来失衡风险。关于9月是否加息，威廉姆斯表示并无特别倾向，持开放态度。另外一位里奇蒙德联储主席莱克则延续了他上一次鹰派言论，在昨天讲话里称，下半年美国会迎来经济复苏，他对于前景看法观点一直不变，认为美联储已经远远落后于应该达到的基准水平，利率政策需要加速。这两位联储委员在今年均没有投票权，但多少能反映联储内部官员的取态，特别是威廉姆斯一直被外界认为和耶伦关系密切，鹰派的言论一定程度上限制了金价涨势。

美联储FED周二数据显示，美国8月就业市场状况指数LMCI录得-0.7，重陷负值，不及预期值0，前值则从1.0修正为1.3，该指数在1到6月份一直深陷负值，不过于7月脱离负值泥潭，但8月又重新录得负值，或会燃起市场对美国就业市场的一丝担忧。而稍早公布的美国8月ISM非制造业PMI低于预期值，美国8月ISM非制造业新订单指数更是创2013年12月以来新低，加息预期大幅降温。详细数据显示，美国8月ISM非制造业指数为51.4，市场预期为55，7月为55.5。ISM非制造业指数反映的是美国非制造业商业活动的繁荣程度，是该协会在调查美国全国60个行业中近400个企业采购和供应经理人之后编制的。这些行业中包括农业、采矿业、建筑业、交通运输业、通讯业、批发贸易和零售贸易等。50为荣枯分水岭，高于50意味服务业扩张，低于50意味服务业萎缩。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

欧元投机净空头减少15850份(或17%)至76658份
瑞郎投机净头寸转为净多,由净空1545份转为净多1885份
加元投机净头寸转为空头,由净多12473份转为净空16734份



>>三、交易策略



XAUUSD：其实今天再要1340做多有点担忧了，连接1302-1306低点支撑在1330一带，现在面临的问题就是是否要降低做多点位，得看盘中强弱来决定，目前没有更好的办法，有一点端倪就是，昨天从1352开始回落，晚间又再度测试了一遍，随着日线收阴，今天加深调整跌破1340是有可能的，但这种单纯的震荡修正式调整应该到不了1330，可能就1335这里，周二美盘十点因为数据影响有个跳空上涨吧，就这里去做多，位置给得可能相对保守，但如果到位做多也相对安全，另外维持1350之上看空思路不变，理想位置还是1355，我的观点依然明确，今天1350之下不追空，1350之上不追多，等1335一带做多黄金，如果黄金在1340之上开涨，那么1355做空进去；日内走势，黄金1335多，止损1330，目标1355。



Crude-Oil:现在原油涨了，不过昨天看震荡是合理的，美盘遇阻回踩44.5才开始上升，隔夜上涨才接近周高点46.5，日线上升已经重新启动，看样子我周评说的41-46区间震荡，已经被周一的大涨破坏了，现在再要看跌破上周低点不现实，周初大涨46.5迎来了一波下跌，算是对我的周初反弹做空观点的回报，现在多头卷土重来，那就不要再去看空了，日线已经结束下跌，短线由空转多，现在日线中阳收线，价格接近周一高点，短线看多原油，操作上尽量低多，但白天如果冲高47.5可空，美盘EIA数据是主导，白天回落45.5可多，基本上数据之前行情会在区间45.5-47.5内震荡，参照区间操作；日内走势，美国原油白天45.5-47.5区间操作！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种           方  向         入场区域          支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.1270          1.1100          1.1300
GBPUSD              空         1.3400          1.3250          1.3430
AUDUSD              空         0.7680          0.7500          0.7710  
USDJPY              空         102.30          101.00           102.60
XAUUSD              空         1348.0          1335.0          1352.0
XAGUSD              空         19.90           19.30           20.20
Crude-Oil             多         45.80           45.50           47.20  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期               时间          事件                                                    重要性                   前值                市场预测
09/08             19:45      欧元区9月央行利率决议                            高                      0.00%               0.00%  
09/08             19:45      欧元区9月央行边际贷款利率                     高                      0.25%               0.25%  
09/08             19:45      欧元区9月央行存款利率                            高                     -0.40%              -0.40%  
09/08             20:30      美国上周续请失业金人数                           中                     215.9万            215.1万  
09/08             20:30      美国上周初请失业金人数                           中                     26.3万              26.5万  

FOREX NEWS: ECB RATE REMAINS UNCHANGED, POUND FACES A BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIO

EUR/USD

Forex News: As expected, yesterday the European Central Bank kept the rate unchanged at 0.00% and on top of that, ECB President Mario Draghi maintained a neutral stance, so the Euro didn’t show dramatic movement.



Technical Outlook

Bullish action was seen ahead of the ECB events and during the press conference the pair had mixed reactions, moving upwards at first and nullifying the gains soon after. Now we have two long upper wicks on the last two four-hour candles and both oscillators are overbought, making us anticipate a bearish session today. If this comes true, the pair will likely find support around 1.1240 and if that is broken, then probably the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be the next target. To the upside, 1.1340 remains the first resistance and target but a clear break of that zone today is a less likely scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ends on a low note, without major economic releases; the only notable event is the start of the Eurogroup Meetings, attended by key political and financial personalities from the member states. Volatility may be triggered but this depends entirely on the matters discussed.


GBP/USD

The sellers stepped in yesterday, creating a bearish day and reaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This was a much needed retracement because as mentioned previously, the pair was overextended.



Technical Outlook

We are dealing with a classic bounce-or-break scenario with the stars of the show being the 50 period EMA and 1.3280 support. If the bears manage to push the pair below this confluence zone, we will probably see an extended move south, but it must be noted that the pair is in an uptrend (starting at 1.2880) and this means that there’s an increased chance of a bounce higher. In any case, the way price behaves here is likely to determine the next medium-term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light today for the Pound so the main focus will be the technical aspect; U.K. representatives will attend the Eurogroup Meetings and this may be a reason for increased volatility.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

FOREX NEWS: BEARS IN SHORT-TERM CONTROL, SUPPORT THREATENED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair finished last week on a bearish note, dropping through 1.1240 support and touching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This type of movement will likely trigger an extended fall after a bullish correction.



Technical Outlook

After the failed attempt to reach 1.1340 resistance, the bears took over and managed to establish their control over the pair. If they manage to close a full candle below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect the pair to head into 1.1185 but a break of this level is not likely to happen today, mostly because we don’t have anything major on the economic calendar. Before the bearish movement can continue, we expect the pair to touch (and maybe pierce through) 1.1240 and to bounce lower soon after.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is empty for both the Euro and the US Dollar so we expect a slow Monday, with possibly ranging movement.


GBP/USD

Friday the sellers continued the move started earlier during the week and pushed the pair through two types of support. The short term bias is negative but an uptrend is still in place.



Technical Outlook

The horizontal support at 1.3280 and the dynamic support represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average were both broken Friday and now we see a small push up, which will possibly confirm 1.3280 as resistance. If this comes true, the pair is likely to continue downwards but the extent should be limited because the Stochastic is already oversold. Today we will probably see a ranging day, without major advances to either side.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected by major economic releases, thus the technical aspect will prevail.

FOREX NEWS: ACTION SPEEDS UP WITH THE RELEASE OF GERMAN ZEW SURVEY AND IMPORTANT BRITISH INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the economic calendar was light and the pair had trouble establishing a clear direction. Overall we had a ranging session, with price climbing at first and then dropping to erase the early gains



Technical Outlook

Price moved twice below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and each time it returned above it but the bulls couldn’t capitalize on the bounce and didn’t push price significantly higher. This indecision will probably come to an end today and we are likely to see a more decisive move; if price descends and a full candle closes below the 50 EMA, we expect to see a move into 1.1185, otherwise the main direction will be north.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment comes out, showing the opinions of 275 German professional investors and analysts regarding a 6-month economic outlook. Due to the nature of their jobs, these persons are well informed and their opinion matters, so higher numbers than the forecast 2.8 (previous 0.5) are viewed as beneficial for the Euro.

At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the 2016 Alcide De Gasperi Award ceremony, in Trento. We don’t expect this to create huge movement but surprises can always happen so we recommend caution.


GBP/USD

The Pound also had a slow start of the week but later in the afternoon the pair gained some speed and climbed above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s climb is possibly showing that the drop from 1.3445 was a retracement in an uptrend; however, the picture is not yet clear and this doesn’t necessarily mean that we will see a resumption of the uptrend. What is certain at the moment is that price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3280 and these are bullish signs. That being said, our bias is bullish, aiming for a touch of 1.3365 but we don’t exclude the possibility of a drop lower.

Fundamental Outlook

British inflation data comes out at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index that is expected to show a change of 0.7% (previous 0.6%). If this forecast comes true (or if higher numbers are posted), we expect the Pound to strengthen and the pair to climb.

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ADVANCES AGAINST POUND ON DISAPPOINTING BRITISH CPI DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday we had a very slow day, without a clear direction or notable developments. Mario Draghi’s speech was shifted 105 minutes later but as expected, it wasn’t a major market mover.



Technical Outlook

The pair is still hovering close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, without picking a direction and this makes our bias neutral, expecting a clear move to either side. Same as we mentioned before, a full candle that closes below the 50 EMA can be considered a clear break and may generate additional movement south, with 1.1185 as first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for both the Euro and the US Dollar but despite this, we expect stronger movement than yesterday.


GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index released yesterday posted a disappointing value of 0.6%, showing that inflation in not improving at the desired pace. This weakened the Pound and allowed the pair to drop through support.



Technical Outlook

The current move is very likely to touch and even pierce 1.3175 support after small retracements to the upside. Once the pair gets there and if the Relative Strength Index will be oversold, we expect a deeper retracement before a potential break of the mentioned support. If the pair reverses direction and moves straight up, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer the first resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT we take a look at British unemployment situation with the release of the Claimant Count, an indicator that shows changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits. A higher number than the forecast 1.7K is usually detrimental for the Pound because a larger number of people without jobs means that consumer spending will drop in the future.

FOREX NEWS: U.S. RETAIL SALES, BOE RATE DECISION – THE STALEMATE MAY COME TO AN END

EUR/USD

Forex News: For the most part of yesterday the pair remained in a very tight range, mostly due to the fact that no major economic indicators were released. Later in the afternoon action picked up a bit but without a clear breakout.



Technical Outlook

The picture remains blurry as the pair cannot move away from the 50 period Exponential moving Average, which is flat and confirms the lack of bias. Today some important U.S. indicators will be released and we expect this to be the catalyst behind stronger movement; direction will be determined by the numbers posted and for the moment our bias is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT we have a cluster of events for the US Dollar: the Retail Sales release is probably the most important because sales made at retail levels represent the main part of consumer spending and this is why higher numbers than the forecast -0.1% usually strengthen the greenback.

At the same time the U.S. Producer Price Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase; the indicator has inflationary implications and numbers above the forecast 0.1% are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count showed a change of 2.4K, more than the anticipated 1.7K and this weakened the Pound at the time of release; however, most of the losses were soon erased.



Technical Outlook

The pair descended below 1.3175 but now it shows clear signs of rejection: the last candle has a long wick in its lower part and both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are very close to oversold. This makes us anticipate a rejection that will take price higher, possibly aiming towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If this dynamic resistance holds, we will probably see a break of support in the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will announce the interest rate today at 11:00 am GMT and although no change is expected (currently 0.25%), volatility is likely to increase. At the same time we will get insights into the reasons that determined the rate decision, with the release of the Monetary Policy Summary, as well as a breakdown of the members’ votes.

FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION DATA AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT – FINISHING THE WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Retail Sales numbers released yesterday disappointed and the same was true for the Producer Price Index but despite all this, the US Dollar managed to erase all the losses incurred when the indicators came out.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action confirmed 1.1285 as minor resistance and now the pair has returned in the zone around 1.1240 so the indecision period still continues. This type of behaviour, with price confined in a small range for extended periods of time usually warns that a strong move is about to happen but the direction is difficult to predict. It is also worth noting that despite poor economic data, the US Dollar is still holding its ground against the Euro and this suggests underlying strength. For the time being our bias is neutral, in anticipation of today’s important releases.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT we take a look at U.S. inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index; the forecast is a change of 0.1% (previous 0.0%) and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the greenback. Keep an eye on the CORE version of the indicator (excludes food and energy) released at the same time and expected to show a 0.2% change from the previous 0.1%.

The last notable release of the week is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey that comes out at 2:00 pm GMT. This is often a leading indicator of consumer spending and that’s the reason why numbers above the forecast 91.0 are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

As expected the Bank of England kept the rate unchanged and the release did not have a huge market impact. The Pound strengthened earlier yesterday but most of the gains were erased.



Technical Outlook

Price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but encountered the strong resistance at 1.3280 and bounced lower immediately after touching it. Now the pair has reached once again the support at 1.3175 and is already showing signs of rejection so we may see another push towards the moving average. However, if support is broken with a full candle, we expect the move to continue lower. Keep in mind that U.S. inflation data will play an important role in today’s price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases so the pair’s movement will be mostly influenced by the U.S. indicators and by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.