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EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair came under pressure Friday after failing to break above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and finished the week in negative territory. The US Dollar has now erased all losses incurred after the FOMC Meeting.



Technical Outlook

Price is now very close to a bullish trend line and early in today’s session we expect to see a break or a bounce at the said trend line. A bounce higher will take price into the 50 EMA and a break will probably trigger a move into 1.1700 territory but given the lack of major economic releases, we don’t expect to see a break of the 50 EMA or 1.1700 support.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone Final Consumer Price Index will be released today at 10:00 am GMT and this will be the only notable event of the day. The CPI shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase and acts as the main gauge of inflation but the Final version has a low impact; nonetheless, numbers above the forecast 1.5% usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

Friday the pair dropped on the back of Brexit concerns and lost more than 100 pips, finishing the week in negative territory. However, price is still ranging from a longer term perspective and support is still holding.


Technical Outlook

The support zone around 1.3320 – 1.3300 rejected price twice in a relatively short period and now it is being tested again. After Friday’s strong drop, we will likely see a small pullback but as long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish, anticipating a break of 1.3320 and a consequent move into 1.3280.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre day ahead, without any major economic releases. Brexit talks and negotiations can affect the currency, so caution is recommended.

FOREX NEWS: FRESH US DOLLAR SELLING PRESSURE SENDS THE PAIRS FLYING. RESISTANCE THREATENED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German political scene was one of the catalysts behind the pair’s push above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seen yesterday. The US Dollar weakened on concerns regarding the long awaited U.S. tax reform bill.



Technical Outlook

The pair has climbed above the 50 EMA with strong bullish momentum and is now testing the resistance at 1.1825. If this level will be broken, we expect price to climb into 1.1875 region where the Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought, signalling a retracement. If 1.1825 will reject price lower and the bulls cannot keep it above the 50 EMA, we will probably see a return into 1.1735 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate survey will be today’s highlight for the Euro, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about a 6-month outlook for economic and business conditions in Germany. The time of release is 9:00 am GMT and the expected reading is 117.6; higher numbers show optimism, strengthening the single currency but the impact is low-to-medium.

On the US Dollar side the most notable release will be the Building Permits, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. This is a good indicator of future activity in the construction sector and usually a reading above the forecast 1.28M (annualized number) strengthens the greenback.

GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was the main driver of yesterday’s price action. The pair erased most of the losses incurred Friday and is now trading above the 50 period EMA once again.



Technical Outlook

As seen from yesterday’s price behaviour, the pair doesn’t have a clear bias and all moves are reversed even if they look strong at first. Two levels are key for medium term movement: the support around 1.3320 and the resistance at 1.3450. As long as price is trading above the 50 EMA we expect it to reach 1.3450 but until one of the key levels is broken, out bias is mostly neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic day ahead, without any major releases scheduled. Price action can be affected by Brexit negotiations so the pair remains high risk.

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS, BEARISH PRESSURE INCREASES. CAN THE US DOLLAR MAKE A COMEBACK?

EUR/USD

Forex News: US Dollar weakness persisted throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair reversed an earlier drop that found support near the 50 EMA. The German IFO Business Climate survey came slightly below expectations but the impact wasn’t major.


Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is testing 1.1825 resistance for the second time in a short while but the latest candle is showing a long wick in its upper part, which is a sign of rejection. If the current resistance cannot be broken, we expect to see a drop through the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and a move closer to 1.1735 in the near future. The pair is in a range, so we expect choppy price action until a clear breakout occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales will be released, showing how many houses were sold during the previous month, apart from new buildings. The indicator usually has a low-to-medium impact but higher numbers than the forecast 5.53 Million (annualized number) can strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Pound bulls failed to keep the pair above the 50 EMA, so yesterday’s trading session was mostly controlled by the bears but price action remained choppy.


Technical Outlook

The failure to continue upward after the initial break of the 50 period EMA shows that bearish pressure is increasing and that we will most likely see a touch of 1.3320 support. The pair remains in a range from a longer term perspective and today’s direction will probably be influenced by the testimony of BOE Governor Carney.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:15 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Carney will testify before the Treasury Select Committee on the topic of the November Financial Stability Report. The event is likely to generate increased volatility, so caution is advised.

FOREX NEWS: EURO BREAKS OUT. FAKE MOVE OR THE START OF A BULL RUN?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The early part of yesterday’s trading session was choppy and without any major developments; however in the afternoon the Euro bulls managed to take the pair above resistance, despite a better than expected reading for the U.S. Existing Home Sales.

Technical Outlook

The pair is now trading above the resistance at 1.1875 but the bullish move was mostly triggered by the technical side rather than the fundamental because yesterday no major economic data came out. If the bulls can keep price above 1.1875, we will probably see an extended move north, with 1.1945 as target but this will be reached in more than a day probably. A quick return below 1.1875 will negate the bullish momentum and will make 1.1825 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event today will be the release of the Final version of the US Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The GDP measures the annualized change in the total value of services and goods generated by the economy and acts as the main gauge of economic performance but the Final version tends to have the lowest impact. The expected reading is 3.3%, same as previous and higher numbers strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

Price action remained choppy throughout yesterday’s session and the testimony of BOE Governor Carney went mostly unnoticed. However the pair climbed above the 50 period EMA and the bias was bullish.

Technical Outlook

Lately the pair’s movement is lacking a clear direction and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is moving almost flat, further showing that the pair is in range mode. Upside momentum is almost non-existent so if the pair cannot break the previous top at 1.3420, we expect to see a drop through the 50 EMA, en route to 1.3320 area.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable Pound affecting release will be the Public Sector Net Borrowing, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. It shows the difference between spending and income for the Government and public corporations but has a medium-to-low impact on the currency; higher values than the forecast 8.3 Billion are beneficial for the Pound because a negative number means surplus and a positive one means deficit.