[分享] 外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair failed to break the resistance at 1.1775 and bounced lower as a consequence, reaching the target at 1.1713. The U.S. economic data released during the day was positive, thus aiding the drop.

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is testing the support zone between 1.1713 – 1.1700, fuelled by a positive US Dollar sentiment. From a short-to-medium term perspective price is in a range, and it bounced many times from this zone, so we cannot rule out another rejection. However, the technical side will be overshadowed by the fundamental today and we expect to see choppy/ranging price action until the NFP release. If the current support is broken, the next target will become 1.1660, followed by 1.1600 and to the upside 1.1775 remains first resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which is considered the most important employment data in the U.S., will be released. The report shows changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and usually has a very high impact on the greenback, mostly because consumer spending is directly correlated with employment. The expected change is 82K (previous 156K) and higher numbers are beneficial for the economy.

GBP/USD

The Pound dropped again yesterday, mostly on rumours that British Prime Minister May will be asked to resign her position. Two support levels were broken and the bears remained in control throughout the day.

Technical Outlook

The recent drop was fuelled by fundamental reasons but from a technical point of view, the Relative Strength Index is oversold, suggesting that a climb will soon follow, with increased chances of that happening if 1.3100 is reached. However, today’s price action will also be affected by the important NFP release, so the technical side will remain secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no scheduled economic releases for today but any news coming from the British political scene will probably have a high impact on the Pound. Also, the U.S. employment data will have a direct impact on the pair.

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR VULNERABLE AFTER DISAPPOINTING NFP NUMBERS. UPSIDE PRICE ACTION TO FOLLOW

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday, after an initial drop below 1.1700, the pair started to climb, mostly on US Dollar weakness triggered by the disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report. Overall price action was choppy and volatility remained low until the NFP release.


Technical Outlook

The current move up may extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average because the US Dollar is affected by worse than expected employment data but we don’t expect to see a move above the 50 EMA or above 1.1775. To the downside 1.1700 is the first barrier but the overall picture is unclear and we may get a ranging session due to the lack of economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

Today United States banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day and no major economic data will be released. On the Euro side we don’t have anything important either and this will probably contribute to a slow day.


GBP/USD

Although the US Dollar suffered from a disappointing NFP report, the Pound couldn’t erase the previous losses and instead the pair just paused from the drop seen throughout last week.



Technical Outlook

The last few candles are showing long wicks in their lower side and the pair is clearly oversold, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index which has been moving below its 30 level for quite a long while. Today we expect to see a climb into the previous support at 1.3100, which has now turned into resistance but overall we may see a ranging session, with price trapped between 1.3100 and 1.3000.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic releases for the day so the technical side will probably decide direction.

FOREX NEWS: POUND IN THE SPOTLIGHT: BRITISH MANUFACTURING AND GDP NUMBERS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained in a relatively tight range yesterday and no special developments took place, mostly because the economic calendar lacked any important announcements.



Technical Outlook

Price is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above the support at 1.1700, which puts the pair in a range from a short term point of view. Today we expect to see a break of either one of these technical levels and the direction of the break will probably decide the direction for the day. Overall price is still making lower highs and lower lows, so we favour the short side as long as price is below the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECOFIN Meetings will start today, attended by Finance Ministers from the EU member states. The Meetings are closed to the press but a formal statement will be released at the end of the day and sometimes participants talk to reporters during the day. Usually the Meetings don’t have a huge market impact but caution is recommended nonetheless.


GBP/USD

The pair had a bullish day, with price climbing above 1.3160 and then returning below the level. The move was mostly caused by the overextended condition of the pair.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday we saw a retracement that is normal after the strong drop seen during the past week, but the overall direction remains down and we expect to see a bounce from the current level. As an alternate scenario, the move up may continue and reach the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but we don’t expect a break.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production will be the day’s highlight, scheduled for release at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator shows changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers and usually has a hefty impact on the Pound, with higher numbers strengthening it. The expected reading is 0.3% compared to the previous 0.5%.

At 12:00 pm GMT the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) will release a GDP Estimate and although this is not Government data, it can have a notable impact on the Pound. The previous estimate was 0.4% and higher numbers strengthen the currency.

FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE US DOLLAR FOR THE FOMC MEETING MINUTES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair climbed above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, extending the bullish move and printing a higher high. Overall price is still in a range but with a bullish bias.



Technical Outlook

The move above the 50 EMA will probably bring in additional buyers, taking the pair into the resistance zone around 1.1840. If the pair does reach that mark, we expect to see a move south but as long as price stays above the 50 EMA, our short term bias is bullish. The balance of power will tilt towards the bears if price descends below 1.1775 and below the Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest rate Meeting and some hints about a future rate hike are expected. If the document will reveal that the Fed is preparing to hike one more time this year, the US Dollar will probably respond by strengthening.


GBP/USD

Yesterday price climbed above 1.3160, partly due to better than expected British Manufacturing numbers. The pair is approaching the 50 EMA but the move lacks strong momentum.



Technical Outlook

The first destination for the pair seems to be the 50 EMA, followed soon after by the resistance at 1.3250. If the 50 EMA holds, we expect to see a drop through 1.3160 and closer to 1.3100 but otherwise, 1.3250 will become the first target, which if surpassed, will open the door for further upside movement. The FOMC Meeting Minutes released today will be a deciding factor for price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no economic releases scheduled for the Pound today so all eyes will be on the US Dollar for the FOMC Minutes release.

FOREX NEWS: FED OFFICIALS FEAR LOW INFLATION. ANOTHER HIKE THIS YEAR STILL POSSIBLE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued on a bullish path before the FOMC Meeting Minutes release, which revealed that some Fed officials fear that low inflation is not “only transitory”. The greenback weakened at the time of the release but volatility remained relatively normal.



Technical Outlook

It looks like the Dollar’s next move will be decided by inflation data but for the time being, the American currency lacks strength and the pair is climbing. However, price is currently at a resistance zone created by 1.1840 and 1.1875, with the Relative Strength Index in overbought territory. This calls for a bounce lower, which will probably occur once 1.1875 is hit. As long as the mentioned level remains intact, our bias is bearish, expecting a bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Producer Price Index will be today’s most notable release for the US Dollar, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and it has inflationary implications because a higher producer price usually leads to a higher consumer price. Today’s expected change is 0.4% (previous 0.2%) and numbers above forecast strengthen the greenback.

At 2:30 pm GMT, ECB President Draghi will speak about monetary policy in Washington DC, at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The impact cannot be anticipated but caution should always be used when heads of central banks speak publicly.


GBP/USD

The pair remained in a range for most of yesterday’s trading session and the FOMC Minutes created a small climb due to US Dollar weakness. Overall no special developments took place and price action was slow.



Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is drifting without clear direction, meaning that we can see either a move up or down. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also flat, adding to the uncertainty, so until we see a clear break of 1.3250 or 1.3160, our bias is neutral. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an overextended condition but the Stochastic is overbought and crossing down; this is not a strong bearish signal but combined with the inability to move above the 50 EMA, it may suggest that lower prices will follow.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has another light day ahead, so the technical aspect and the U.S. data will be the main price drivers.

FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION EYED FOR NEXT MOVE. POSSIBLE RATE HIKE IMPLICATIONS

EUR/USD

Forex News: After reaching the resistance at 1.1875, the pair bounced lower, due to the technical reasons outlined yesterday but also due to upbeat US Dollar sentiment triggered by positive economic data.



Technical Outlook

The overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index combined with the resistance level at 1.1875 generated a bounce lower, which is likely to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, if price returns above 1.1840, we will most likely see another test of 1.1875 but we don’t expect major advances north until a deeper retracement occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have two very important releases scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT: the U.S. Consumer Price Index (expected change 0.6%) and the U.S. Retail Sales (expected change 1.7%). The former is the main gauge of inflation and is especially important now because some Fed officials see inflation as too low and this could potentially affect their decision to hike later this year.

Sales made at retail levels represent the major part of consumer spending and in turn, a big part of overall economic activity, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the currency.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened during yesterday’s session on concerns that Brexit negotiations are not going as smooth as they should and this combined with positive U.S. data triggered a drop below support.



Technical Outlook

The pair broke 1.3160 and now it looks like it’s testing the level from below. If price remains below 1.3160 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect to see a move into 1.3100. The oscillators are starting to gain downside momentum and the Pound is affected by Brexit negotiations, so the bias is negative but a lot will depend on the U.S. data released throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is light today, without any major releases, so the technical aspect and the U.S. data will be the main price drivers.

FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION DISAPPOINTS, US DOLLAR STILL RESILIENT

EUR/USD

Fores News: The pair spiked higher Friday when the U.S. Consumer Price Index showed a value below expectations. However, most of the US Dollar losses were soon erased and the pair finished the week below resistance.



Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias is still bullish but it must be noted that recently the resistance at 1.1875 was touched twice and each time price dropped. This shows that bearish pressure is increasing and the bulls lack the necessary strength to take price higher, at least for the time being. If resistance is not broken early in the session, we expect a drop through the 50 EMA and into 1.1775.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s only notable release is the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is a survey of about 200 manufacturers from the New York state. The respondents are asked to rate the level of business conditions and the survey acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health. The time of release is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected reading is 20.3 but the survey has a limited impact.


GBP/USD

The pair showed choppy price action Friday and ended the session close to where it started it. The US Dollar weakened at the time of the CPI release but erased most of the losses soon after.



Technical Outlook

Friday the bulls attempted to take price higher but failed and this resulted in a candle with a long upper wick, which is a sign of rejection, so we expect a move lower for today. However, the pair will most likely remain between the resistance at 1.3350 and the support at 1.3250 for the entire trading session or at least for a big part of it.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic calendar today, so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction. The lack of economic data releases may also trigger a slow day.

FOREX NEWS: FULL DAY FOR THE POUND: INFLATION DATA AND BOE GOVERNOR’S TESTIMONY

EUR/USD

Yesterday the pair moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and approached the support at 1.1775 but overall the session was pretty slow. The Empire State Manufacturing Index posted a value of 30.2, higher than the expected 20.3 and this helped the US Dollar to some extent.



Technical Outlook

Although the pair descended below the 50 EMA, it lacks momentum and seems like neither side is in control. However, if the support at 1.1775 is not broken soon, this will show that the balance is tilting towards the bulls and 1.1840 will become the first target. Until an important level is broken, our view is mostly neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today at 9:00 am GMT and will show the opinions of about 300 German professional analysts and investors regarding a 6-month economic outlook for the German economy. Usually a higher number than the expected 20.3 is beneficial for the Euro but the impact is often low if the actual number matches the forecast.


GBP/USD

The pair remained in a tight range for most of yesterday’s trading session mostly due to the lack of economic data releases for the Pound.



Technical Outlook

Although yesterday the pair moved sideways for the most part of the session, in the afternoon we saw a drop into 1.3250 and into the 50 EMA, followed by a bounce higher. This shows that 1.3250 is still a good support level, thus a break will show increased bearish pressure. As long as the pair is trading between 1.3250 and 1.3350, our bias is neutral but a lot will depend on the British economic data.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is an important day for the Pound, due to the release of the British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and is closely watched by the BOE when deciding interest rate changes. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected reading is 3.0% (previously 2.9%). Higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound because high inflation eventually leads to a rate hike.

At 10:15 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will testify in London, before the Treasury Select Committee. This testimony may have a strong impact on the Pound, so we recommend caution until volatility settles down.

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR REGAINS ITS SWAGGER. SUPPORT BROKEN AND LOWER PRICES TO FOLLOW

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro weakened yesterday after a disappointing German ZEW survey and this allowed the pair to break support and to move south for almost the entire trading session.



Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.1775 so the short term outlook is bearish, making us anticipate a move closer to 1.1700. However, it must be noted that the last few candles are showing long wicks in their lower part and the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold, which are signs of rejection. This means that the pair will probably retrace higher before reaching 1.1700 but as long as it remains below the 50 EMA, the bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:10 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the ECB Conference held in Frankfurt. The impact on the currency will depend on his attitude and matters discussed but cannot be anticipated beforehand. However, volatility is likely to surge and caution is always advised when heads of central banks speak publicly.

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Building Permits will be released, showing how many construction permits for residential buildings were released during the previous month. This is a gauge of future construction activity and usually the greenback is positively affected by a number above forecast, which for today is 1.25 Million (annualized number).


GBP/USD

The Pound pushed slightly higher at the time of the British CPI release (3.0% change, as anticipated) but it came under heavy selling pressure and dropped for more than 100 pips, breaking the key handle at 1.3250.



Technical Outlook

The pair broke with ease the confluence zone created by 1.3250 and the 50 period EMA, showing increased bearish pressure. However, at the time of writing, the drop is showing rejection at 1.3160 so a move up cannot be ruled out. That being said, our bias remains bearish as long as price is trading below the 50 EMA and below 1.3250, so we expect a drop to 1.3100 or even lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event for the Pound today will be the release of the Average Earnings Index, which shows changes in the price that employers pay for labour. Higher wages lead to increased consumer spending and this in turn strengthens the Pound, so the indicator has a hefty impact. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected change is 2.1%.

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR FAILS TO BREAK SUPPORT. BRITISH RETAIL SALES EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: After dipping into the area around 1.1735, the pair recovered and moved higher, breaking 1.1775 and reaching the 50 period EMA. The U.S. Building Permits came out lower than expected, facilitating the climb.



Technical Outlook

The pair is currently at a crossroads: if the bulls can break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the climb will probably continue until 1.1840 is reached. Otherwise, we expect a drop through 1.1775 into the minor support at 1.1735 and possibly 1.1700. The oscillators are showing upside momentum but recently the US Dollar is showing signs of strength so the overall bias is still unclear.

Fundamental Outlook

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today at 12:30 pm GMT, showing the opinions of manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding the general level of business conditions. The survey has a medium impact on the currency, but higher numbers than the anticipated 21.9 usually strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

British earnings data came out above expectations yesterday but despite this bullish signal, the pair only showed a small climb, which was quickly erased and overall the entire session was choppy.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s trading session doesn’t offer a lot of clues for the next move but it’s clear that 1.3160 is offering good support and is tough to break. For the short term we expect a climb into the 50 period EMA but if that mark is not surpassed, the pair will probably return to attempt another break of 1.3160. A lot will depend on the British data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be heavily affected today by the release of the British Retail Sales, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator draws its importance from the fact that sales made at retail level represent the main part of consumer spending, so a higher number means that economic activity is picking up and this strengthens the currency. The expected change for today is -0.1%, while the previous was 1.0%.