[分享] 外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

FOREX NEWS: NO ECONOMIC CATALYSTS FOR TODAY. CAN BULLS MAINTAIN THEIR ADVANTAGE?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s price action revolved around the speeches of Draghi and Yellen, which triggered strong bullish moves. Yellen’s speech didn’t contain any hints about future monetary policy and was described as “boring” by some market analysts.



Technical Outlook

The latest move was generated by the speeches of the two heads of central banks but from a technical standpoint, we can clearly see a bounce at 1.1775 support and at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Two resistance levels (1.1840 and 1.1875) are broken now and the long term uptrend is renewed, facts that make us anticipate another push north in the near future. However, it’s very possible to see ranging movement today or possibly a pullback based on the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major economic indicators on today’s calendar, so the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Yellen’s speech delivered Friday weakened the US Dollar across the board and the Pound bulls capitalized, taking the pair above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

The pair has created a bottom near 1.2770 support and now, bullish pressure generated by Yellen’s speech, has taken price above the 50 EMA. The current move is likely to extend into 1.2900, where we expect to see some type of retracement lower. Probably by that time the Relative Strength Index will become overbought, thus increasing the chances of a move lower. To the downside, 1.2850 is the first potential barrier and place where we may see bounces if the pair drops.

Fundamental Outlook

British banks will be closed today, celebrating Summer Bank Holiday and no economic data will be announced. This will most likely affect volatility, possibly triggering a slow or choppy trading session.

FOREX NEWS: PAIRS CLIMB TIMIDLY AHEAD OF CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was slow but slightly bearish after a bounce at 1.1960, which is now short term resistance. No major economic data was released and this contributed to the relatively low volatility.



Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both in overbought territory, warning that a move lower may soon follow. That being said, the pair is still showing upside momentum and yesterday’s ranging movement should be considered normal after a strong climb, not a sign of weakness. For today we anticipate another encounter with 1.1960 and if that barrier is broken, price will probably climb into 1.2000 where we expect a pullback.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have another fairly slow economic day, with the CB Consumer Confidence being the only notable release. This is a survey with a large sample size of about 5,000 households, which tries to gauge respondents’ opinion regarding the overall economic situation in the United States. A higher than expected number shows optimism and usually strengthens the US Dollar but the survey is not known to be a major market mover. The scheduled time is 2:00 pm GMT and the anticipated value is 120.3.


GBP/USD

The week opened with a bullish gap that was already closed during yesterday’s trading session and now price is trading close to the highs but below 1.2930 resistance.



Technical Outlook

The bulls kept price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average yesterday and this may suggest that the upside move will continue into 1.2950 area in the near future. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are approaching overbought so we will likely see a pullback after a touch of 1.2950. To the downside, 1.2900 is the first support, followed by the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be influenced by economic data today, so the main price driver will be the technical aspect and the U.S. survey.

FOREX NEWS: GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS RISE, TRADERS TURN TO U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA AND GDP FOR NEXT DIRECTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro pushed higher yesterday and moved the pair to a high of 1.2070 before retreating into 1.2000 area. The growing political tension generated by North Korea’s missile launch over Japan’s airspace contributed to the volatile movement.



Technical Outlook

Although some of the gains were erased in the latter part of yesterday’s trading session, the pair holds firm above 1.2000 psychological level and the general outlook remains bullish. It is possible to see the pair continue lower into 1.1960 area (RSI is overbought and coming down) but the extent of the move should be limited. To the upside the first resistance is 1.2040 (July 2012 low), followed by yesterday’s high at 1.2070.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Preliminary Consumer Price Index will be released today at 12:00 pm GMT, with an anticipated change of 0.1%. This is the main gauge of inflation and considering that the German economy is one of the more important in the EU, we expect quite a hefty impact on the Euro (higher than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the currency).

On the US Dollar side we have the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (forecast 186K), scheduled at 12:15 pm GMT and the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (forecast 2.7%) that will be released 15 minutes later, at 12:30 pm GMT. The former indicator shows changes in the total number of employed people excluding Government and the farming sector, while the latter is the main gauge of an economy’s performance. Higher numbers for any or both of these indicators usually strengthen the US Dollar, thus taking the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar was surrounded yesterday by unrest coming from geopolitical tensions and the pair continued its ascent, breaking 1.2950 resistance; however, most of the Pound gains were erased later in the day.



Technical Outlook

Price is now moving south after a break of 1.2950 resistance that failed to reach 1.3000 psychological level and the Relative Strength Index is moving lower after visiting overbought territory. These are bearish signs that show that we might see a drop into 1.2900 and possibly into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but as long as price doesn’t break these two support levels, the picture remains bullish for a move into 1.3000.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Net Lending to Individuals will be released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 5.3 Billion. The indicator shows changes in the value of credit issued to individuals and usually has a low-to-medium impact on the Pound, with higher numbers strengthening it.

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BOOSTED BY STRONG EMPLOYMENT AND GDP DATA. PAIRS HEADED FOR SUPPORT?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar got a breath of fresh air from better than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (actual 237K vs 185K forecast) and Gross Domestic Product (actual 3.0% vs 2.7% forecast). As a result the pair had a bearish session and dropped through 1.1960.



Technical Outlook

The drop below 1.1960 opened the door for a touch of the confluence zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.1875. It’s very possible to see a bounce higher if the pair reaches that zone but the oscillators are showing strong downside momentum without being oversold and the US Dollar benefited from positive economic data, so a break of the zone is not out of the question. The overall environment is still bullish but for the time being the bears seem in control.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 9:00 am GMT we take another look at European inflation with the release of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (anticipated change 1.4%) and later in the day the US Dollar will be affected by the Chicago PMI. This is a survey that acts as a leading indicator of economic health, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Chicago area and higher numbers usually strengthen the greenback but to a limited extent. The time of release is 1:45 pm GMT and the expected value is 58.7.


GBP/USD

Positive economic data coming from the U.S. strengthened the US Dollar initially but most of the gains were erased later in the day and several candles with long wicks appeared.



Technical Outlook

The long wicks shown by the last few candles are a clear sign of rejection and the signal is even stronger because it happened right on the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This suggests that today we will see a bounce from the 50 period EMA and a potential move into the previous top at 1.2980. A drop through the Moving Average would invalidate this scenario, making 1.2850 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic data releases for today, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the U.S. data and the technical aspect.

FOREX NEWS: NON-FARM PAYROLLS TO ‘MAKE OR BREAK’ THE US DOLLAR RECOVERY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued to take the pair lower yesterday, breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and briefly moving below the 1.1840 mark. The Euro recovered later in the session and some of the losses were erased.



Technical Outlook

The pair is bouncing at 1.1840 resistance but it is still trading below the 50 Exponential Moving Average, so at the time of writing the bias is still negative. We expect to see a break of 1.1840 support and possibly a move into 1.1775 during today’s session if the 50 EMA holds and remains resistance. A big role will be played by the U.S. employment data so the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The most anticipated report of the week comes out today at 12:30 pm GMT: the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. The indicator tracks changes in the total number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming sector and is widely regarded as the most important jobs data. The forecast is 180K (previous 209K) and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. Volatility is almost always high at release time, so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

After failing to break 1.2930 resistance, the pair dropped hard and reached the key support and target at 1.2850. Now some rejection is present but the short term bias is still bearish.



Technical Outlook

The pair is facing a very important hurdle at 1.2850 and it already bounced higher yesterday, showing that the market is still respecting this level. Upside movement should be contained by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.2900 resistance, while to the downside, 1.2770 is the first target if 1.2850 is broken. As stated before, the US Dollar will be heavily influenced by the NFP numbers so the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the manufacturing sector. It’s a leading indicator of optimism, with a medium impact on the Pound and with higher numbers strengthening it. The forecast is 55.0, very similar to the previous 55.1.

FOREX NEWS: U.S. BANKS CLOSED DUE TO LABOR DAY, POUND SHAKY AHEAD OF BRITISH CONSTRUCTION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed Friday by showing a change of only 156K compared to the market consensus 180K. This initially weakened the US Dollar and sent the pair soaring above 1.1960 but the US Dollar made a quick comeback and erased the losses.



Technical Outlook

Friday we saw that the US Dollar is able to take the pair lower even after suffering from worse than expected employment data. The pair is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.1875, making the short term bias bearish and indicating that 1.1840 will be reached probably in the first part of today’s trading session. Overall we expect a rather slow session, with limited movement due to the lack of economic data.

Fundamental Outlook

U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Labor Day and this means that volatility will probably be affected, especially in the second part of the day. On the Euro side there are no important releases either, so the technical aspect will decide market behavior.


GBP/USD

The Pound capitalized on the worse than expected NFP numbers and as a result, Friday’s session was bullish, with the pair moving into 1.3000 region before retreating lower.



Technical Outlook

The pair is currently showing rejection after moving into 1.2980 – 1.3000 resistance and is testing 1.2950, which is now support. Our outlook is bearish, anticipating a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but direction will also be affected by the British economic data that comes out. If the pair bounces at 1.2950 and moves higher, we don’t expect a break of 1.3000.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions and the overall health of the construction sector. The expected value is 52.1 and usually a higher number strengthens the Pound but the impact is not always high.

FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY PICKS UP, DIRECTION STILL UNCLEAR

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was pretty slow, mostly due to the lack of economic data and the fact that the United States celebrated Labor Day. The bias was lightly bullish but the pair remained in a 50 pip range for most of the day.



Technical Outlook

Volatility is likely to pick up today but for the time being the pair lacks a clear direction and both oscillators are somewhere in the middle of their respective range, showing a lack of momentum. Price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. As long as these forms of support hold, our bias is slightly bullish but a break of the confluence zone created by the trend line, the 50 EMA and the support at 1.1875 will probably trigger a stronger move south.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Factory Orders will be released, showing changes in the total value of orders placed with manufacturers. The expected value is -3.3% (previous 3.0%) and usually a higher number strengthens the USD but the impact is low-to-medium. Several FOMC members will deliver speeches during the day but the impact cannot be accurately anticipated.


GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable had a slow and ranging day. The British Construction PMI showed a lower than expected value and this briefly weakened the Pound but the losses were soon erased.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s trading session doesn’t offer many clues about future movement but as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish. During the latest period the pair made a higher high and a higher low, which is a characteristic of an uptrend but as seen from latest price action, momentum is lacking in the short term. It’s very possible to see a touch of the 50 EMA and the way price behaves there will offer more clues about future direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the services sector about business conditions in said sector. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health and optimism, with higher numbers strengthening the Pound to a limited extent. The forecast for today’s release is 53.5.

FOREX NEWS: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS, US DOLLAR ON THE ROPES AGAIN

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price action remained relatively tame during the first part of yesterday’s trading session and the pair stayed above the bullish trend line. The U.S. Factory Orders matched analysts’ consensus of -3.3% and gave some fuel to US Dollar sellers, thus pushing the pair higher.



Technical Outlook

Early during yesterday’s trading session the pair approached the bullish trend line but it bounced higher in the second part of the day, showing that the next medium term direction will likely be bullish. For today we expect to see an encounter with the resistance at 1.1960 and possibly with the psychological level at 1.2000. As an alternate scenario, a break of the bullish trend line will probably add more sellers, making 1.1875 and 1.1840 the next destinations.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (also called Services PMI) will be released, showing the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers from the services sector regarding overall business conditions in the sector. The forecast is 55.5 and usually a higher number strengthens the US Dollar to a limited extent.


GBP/USD

Yesterday after a bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the pair started to move north, fuelled by newfound Pound strength. The U.S. Factory Orders posted a lower value than previous and this pushed the pair even higher.



Technical Outlook

The pair bounced at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, broke the psychological resistance at 1.3000 and created a new higher high. All these are bullish signs that make us anticipate a move into 1.3100 in the near future. The first hurdle in front of rising prices is 1.3030 where we are likely to see a small bounce lower. As long as the pair stays above 1.3000, our bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by economic data so the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect.

FOREX NEWS: ECB IN THE SPOTLIGHT AGAIN, DRAGHI STEALS THE SHOW

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained above the bullish trend line but movement remained relatively slow and resistance wasn’t threatened. The U.S. Services PMI came slightly below expectations but the impact was mild.



Technical Outlook

As long as the bullish trend line seen on the chart remains intact and the pair is trading above the Moving Average, our outlook remains bullish, anticipating a move towards 1.1960 – 1.2000. A break of the 50 EMA will make 1.1875 the first destination but today we expect direction to be decided by the ECB rate announcement and Draghi’s press conference. Until then, we will likely see ranging price action.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the spotlight will be on the European Central Bank for the release of the interest rate, scheduled at 11:45 am GMT. There’s no expected change from the current 0.00% but the announcement often creates irregular movement even if no change occurs.

At 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference, discussing the reasons that determined the rate decision and possibly offering hints about future changes. If such clues will emerge, the Euro is likely to move strongly but the direction will be determined by what the President will say.


GBP/USD

The pair paused at 1.3030 for a short while and then surpassed this resistance, showing bullish momentum. The worse than expected U.S. Services PMI weakened the greenback and helped the climb.



Technical Outlook

The pair remained above the psychological level at 1.3000 and even surpassed 1.3030, thus making us anticipate a move into 1.3100. However, it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought territory and this is an early warning that the pair will soon retrace lower. As long price remains above 1.3000, the overall bias remains bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has another lacklustre economic day ahead, without any data coming out. This generally means that direction will be decided by the technical aspect, given that no data comes out for the Dollar either.

FOREX NEWS: ECB ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS INCREASE, THE EURO RIDES THE TIDE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB didn’t alter the rates but the Euro strengthened during Mario Draghi’s press conference and the pair approached the previous high. The ECB revised lower their inflation expectations but the forecast for economic expansion has increased to 2.2% from 1.9%.



Technical Outlook

The pair pushed above 1.2040 and approached the previous high at 1.2070 but the Euro gave back some of the gains and price returned below 1.2040. Although the pair retraced lower, our outlook remains bullish, anticipating another move above 1.2040 and a test of 1.2070. It must be noted that the Relative Strength Index is very close to overbought and this fact combined with the resistance at 1.2070 may trigger a move down if the pair climbs into that zone or even before.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have a slow day for both currencies, without any notable economic data releases. Price direction will depend mainly on the technical aspect but we will probably see more of the effects of Draghi’s comments from yesterday’s press conference.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to push higher yesterday and the pair reached our projected target at 1.3100. The rally in the EUR/USD played an important role, dragging the US Dollar lower and allowing the Cable to rise.



Technical Outlook

Price is likely to breach 1.3100 but we expect to see a retracement lower soon after. The Relative Strength Index is overbought again, as well as the Stochastic and the pair is facing resistance, so the possibility of a pullback shouldn’t be ruled out even if currently the pair is showing strong upside momentum.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers will be released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers. The forecast is a change of 0.3% compared with last month’s 0.0% and higher numbers show increased economic activity, strengthening the Pound.