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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BACK WITH A VENGEANCE, FINISHING THE WEEK LOWER

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar continued the momentum started a day before by the hawkish Yellen press conference and the pair had a strongly bearish session, breaking support decisively.



Technical Outlook

The bears are definitely winning the short term battle on the back of US Dollar strength but the pair is approaching an important hurdle represented by the support at 1.1120. Last time the pair touched this support, it bounced strongly to the upside, so the same scenario may happen again. If that is the case, we will probably see a move into 1.1170, which may turn into resistance. As long as the pair is trading below 1.1170, our bias is bearish, anticipating a move into 1.1075.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will be affected today at 9:00 am GMT by the release of the Final version of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index. This is the least important version of the CPI, but still, numbers above the forecast 1.4% can strengthen the currency.

On the US Dollar side we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey that gauges the opinions of consumers about overall economic conditions. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 97.2; usually a reading above expectations strengthens the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged as expected, but surprisingly, 3 out of the 8 MPC members voted for an increase. This generated Pound strength but some of the gains were erased soon after.



Technical Outlook

The pair continues to show choppy price action and although volatility is pretty high, the direction is unclear. Yesterday’s price action shows rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the pair is trading below 1.2770 resistance but on the other hand, the Pound is fuelled by the hawkish change in stance of the MPC voting members, so overall the pair is in neutral territory. As long as price remains below the 50 EMA, our bias is slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important releases for today, so the main focus will be on the technical side but the pair will be influenced by the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey.

FOREX NEWS: PRICE REACHES DYNAMIC RESISTANCE. BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the US Dollar was weakened by disappointing values for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the Building Permits, so overall the pair showed bullish price action, reaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

After coming close to 1.1120 support, price started to climb and stopped at the 50 EMA; however, this happened because the markets closed for the weekend, so we cannot say for sure if we are dealing with rejection or if the pair will continue upwards. The question will be answered today: a break will make 1.1240 the first target, while a bounce lower will take price into 1.1170 and possibly 1.1120. We slightly favour a move lower because lately the pair has been under bearish pressure.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar lacks major events for both currencies in the pair, so the technical aspect will prevail. It must be noted however that FOMC Member Dudley will speak at 12:00 pm GMT and FOMC Member Evans will speak at 11:00 pm GMT and this could generate increased volatility but the impact depends on the matters discussed and cannot be anticipated.


GBP/USD

Price continued its choppy movement Friday and breached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average only to return below it almost immediately. Overall we didn’t see clear determination from either part, and the pair is mostly ranging.



Technical Outlook

The last candles are showing long wicks, mostly in their upper side, which is a sign of rejection. This makes us anticipate a drop below 1.2770 if the 50 period EMA is not broken. However, the pair lacks clear direction so we cannot rule out a bullish move, which will probably find resistance at 1.2820. Overall, we expect a slow trading session today.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases, so the main focus will be on the technical side.

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS RECOVERY SIGNS. SUPPORT IN DANGER

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the fundamental scene lacked any major releases and Mondays are typically slow days, so all this translated into slow trading, with price confined in a 50 pip range for most of the say.



Technical Outlook

Although yesterday the pair didn’t cover a lot of distance, it is now clear that the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is providing a strong resistance, rejecting price lower. If 1.1170 support can be broken decisively, we expect to see a move into 1.1120 but we cannot exclude the possibility of a bounce at 1.1170 and a move above the 50 EMA. If this is the case, then 1.1240 will become the first target. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA the bias is slightly bearish but neither side is in clear control.

Fundamental Outlook

FOMC Member Fischer will speak today at 12:00 pm GMT and later at 7:00 pm GMT, FOMC Member Kaplan will speak at a different venue. These speeches are the only notable events for today but we don’t expect them to trigger huge movement unless surprising matters are discussed.


GBP/USD

Trading remained choppy yesterday, as the pair continued to print candles with long wicks, showing indecision. However, later in the day the bears managed to take control and to take the pair below 1.2770.



Technical Outlook

The bearish momentum started yesterday is likely to continue during today’s session and we may see a move closer to 1.2690 but that target will not be reached during the course of one day probably, considering the lack strong movement seen during the last period. The Pound is under bearish pressure but it remains high-risk due to Brexit negotiations and an uncertain political scene.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 7:30 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak at the Mansion House dinner, in London. The Pound is likely to show increased volatility at the time and as always, caution should be used when heads of central banks speak publicly.

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR RULES THE ACTION, POUND WEAKENED BY CARNEY’S COMMENTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a choppy session yesterday but overall the bears won the battle and broke 1.1170 after the bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

The next destination seems to be the support located at 1.1120, followed by 1.1075. The market has a bearish bias and the US Dollar is strengthening but a clear trend is not in place, so we will probably see moves to the north when price encounters support and the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold. As long as these potential rallies don’t extend past the 50 period EMA, our bias remains bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic scene remains slow today, with the U.S. Existing Home Sales being the only notable release. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold during the reported month (excluding new houses) and has a medium impact on the US Dollar. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 5.54 million.


GBP/USD

The Pound was weakened by dovish comments made by BOE Governor Carney during his speech at the Mansion House, so the pair showed a strongly bearish session yesterday, breaking the first support and even breaching 1.2635.



Technical Outlook

The minor support at 1.2690 was easily broken yesterday and the pair continued through the more important 1.2635. Now the next destination is 1.2570 and once price gets there, we anticipate a move higher due to the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and the fact that the pair traveled a long distance south in a relatively short period of time, without retracement.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight for the Pound will be the release of the British Public Sector Net Borrowing, an indicator that shows the difference between spending and income for the public sector. A negative number shows excess and a positive number shows deficit; today’s forecast is a deficit of 7.3 billion, while the previous was 9.6 billion and usually a lower number strengthens the Pound but the impact is often mild. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT.

FOREX NEWS: POUND RATE HIKE SPECULATION BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price action remained slow yesterday, mostly due to the lack of major economic releases, but the pair reached 1.1120 target almost to the pip and then retraced higher.



Technical Outlook

The pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.1170, so the bias remains negative, anticipating a break of 1.1120, followed by a move into 1.1075. It must be noted that 1.1120 acted as solid support yesterday, pushing price higher as soon as it was touched, so this level will probably play an important role in today’s price action. The way price behaves near it will determine the next direction: a break will show bearish pressure, while another bounce at this level will establish it as strong support and will probably take the pair into the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, today is a slow day in terms of economic indicators. The only notable release is the U.S. Unemployment Claims, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to post a reading of 241K. Higher numbers usually weaken the US Dollar but the impact is low-to-medium because the indicator is released weekly.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened yesterday, after Queen Elizabeth said that the government’s priority is securing the best Brexit deal. Also, BOE Chief Economist Haldane renewed hopes of a rate hike sooner rather than later and this was another catalyst behind yesterday’s spike.



Technical Outlook

The pair spiked higher mostly due to the fundamental reasons outlined above but it bounced lower after reaching the psychological level at 1.2700. As seen from yesterday’s price action, the Pound can become very volatile, depending on any news, speculation or rumours regarding Brexit or rate hikes, so we recommend caution and we consider this pair high-risk. As long as the pair remains below the 50 EMA our bias is bearish but a break above 1.2690 – 1.2700 will probably trigger a move above the moving average.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic indicators for today, so the technical aspect will prevail, assuming there are no other surprises.

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS. PREPARING FOR ANOTHER BIG DROP?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair climbed into 1.1170 resistance but there it paused and started to move lower. Rejection is present at support as well as resistance, so the control doesn’t clearly belong to either side.



Technical Outlook

Price reacts almost perfectly to support and resistance as seen from the latest price action (it bounced at 1.1120 and stopped at 1.1170) but the pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so our outlook remains bearish, anticipating a break of 1.1120 and a move into 1.1075. If the buyers can break the confluence zone created by the 50 EMA and by 1.1170 resistance, this will show bullish pressure and will make 1.1240 the target for the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT the Euro will be affected by the release of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey of about 3,000 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector, regarding economic health and overall business conditions in the said sector. The forecast is 56.9 and usually, higher numbers strengthen the Euro. At the same time the Services PMI is released, with an expected reading of 56.2.

On the US Dollar side we have the New Home Sales, scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 599K. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold during the reported month but the impact is usually low.


GBP/USD

The pair slowed down after the spike seen a day before but it must be noted that the bulls couldn’t continue the momentum and price slowly descended throughout yesterday’s session.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.2690 – 1.2700 is holding and the bullish momentum seems to have faded because for an entire day the pair didn’t even try to retest the previous high. If price remains below 1.2690, today we expect to see a drop below 1.2635. The overall picture is bearish but the pair lacks determination and price action is choppy.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today, so the pair’s movement will be decided mainly by the technical side.

FOREX NEWS: THE EURO SHOWS MILD STRENGTH AHEAD OF ECB’S FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING

EUR/USD

Forex News: European PMI values were mixed Friday but the pair had a bullish day nonetheless, mostly on the back of US Dollar weakness. The pair is now trading above previous resistance and the short term bias is bullish.



Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1170 were broken decisively Friday and this makes us anticipate a climb into 1.1240, followed by a small bounce lower. The Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought by the time price reaches the mentioned resistance and a clear trend is not in place, so an overbought oscillator is likely to trigger a move lower. If the pair doesn’t reach the mentioned target and instead starts to move lower, we expect a touch of 1.1120 today or possibly tomorrow.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s first release is the German IFO Business Climate, a survey with a very large sample of about 7,000 businesses that tries to gauge the respondents’ opinions regarding economic conditions, as well as a 6-month outlook. The time of the release is 8:00 am and the expected reading is 114.7; higher numbers show optimism and usually strengthen the currency.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released, showing changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. A higher change than the forecast 0.4% suggests increased economic activity and usually strengthens the US Dollar.

The European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking starts today in Portugal and ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver an opening statement at 5:30 pm GMT. The Euro may react strongly to his speech, so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair had a bullish bias and climbed above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but started to show indecision after breaking this resistance. Overall price action remains choppy and without clear direction.



Technical Outlook

The move above 1.2690 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average opens the door for a touch of 1.2770, but as seen from Friday’s price action, the last few candles are showing long wicks and this is a sign of indecision. As long as the pair is trading above the 50 EMA our bias is slightly bullish but given the current situation, a drop could happen anytime.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no notable indicators on the Pound’s economic calendar for today so the pair’s direction will be mostly decided by the U.S. Durable Goods and the technical aspect.

FOREX NEWS: THREE KEY SPEECHES, THREE HUGE REASONS FOR VOLATILITY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a better than expected value, while the U.S. Durable Goods Orders disappointed, so the Euro won yesterday’s battle with the US Dollar and the pair finished higher.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair descended, touching 1.1170 to the pip and then bouncing higher. This established the level as support and makes the short term bias bullish, with 1.1240 as first target. If and when the pair touches the mentioned resistance, we expect to see a pullback, mainly because the Relative Strength Index will become overbought and the pair is not in a strong trend.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 8:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Portugal at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking. We don’t know how this speech will affect the currency but caution is recommended every time heads of central banks speak publicly.

On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey, scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT. The forecast for this survey is 116.2 (previous 117.9) and a higher value shows increased consumer confidence and possibly higher consumer spending levels in the near future; this in turn strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is not huge.

The final event of the day is a speech of Fed Chair Yellen, focused on global economy and delivered at the British Academy 'President's Lecture', in London. The scheduled time is 5:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The pair showed choppy price action yesterday, first dropping below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then immediately jumping higher, close to the high of the day.



Technical Outlook

Even if the bears didn’t manage to break the 50 period EMA, the current move up lacks strength and seems exhausted. That’s the main reason why today we expect to see another attempt to break the Moving Average, and possibly a move into 1.2690. If price remains above the 50 EMA, the most likely target is 1.2770 but we don’t expect a break unless Carney’s press conference triggers Pound strength.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report and half an hour later BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the Report. These two events call for caution because they could easily trigger volatility and possibly erratic price action.

FOREX NEWS: IMF CUTS U.S. GROWTH FORECAST, US DOLLAR TAKES THE BLOW

EUR/USD

Forex News: ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned during yesterday’s speech the he sees Eurozone growth and that all signs point towards a broadening recovery. On the other hand, the IMF has cut U.S. growth expectations and all this triggered Euro strength and US Dollar weakness, resulting in a huge move up.



Technical Outlook

The pair reached the 1.1300 mark but retraced lower and is trading below 1.1280 at the time of writing. We will most likely see another push higher, into 1.1300 and possibly 1.1340 but it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index has moved into overbought territory and also that usually, fast moves tend to be followed by a pullback. However, we don’t expect this pullback to extend below support as the current outlook is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will participate in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking, alongside other heads of central banks. Yesterday his speech generated a lot of volatility, so caution is recommended today as well.


GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was seen against the Pound as well, and the pair climbed for most of yesterday’s session, testing 1.2770 resistance.



Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average provided good support yesterday and the pair moved into the resistance at 1.2770 but this level is not yet clearly broken. When and if price will surpass this resistance, we expect to see a move into 1.2800 – 1.2820 but once it gets there, the chances of a retracement will increase. If the pair moves below 1.2770, we expect to see a move into the 50 EMA but our bias is mostly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will participate in the same panel discussion as ECB President Mario Draghi. Caution is recommended as the Pound may see some strong movement at the time of the discussions.

FOREX NEWS: EURO AND POUND BREAK KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS FUELLED BY DRAGHI AND CARNEY HAWKISH COMMENTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair dipped yesterday, as it was expected after a big climb but the Euro bulls quickly stepped in and erased the drop. ECB President Draghi made hawkish comments at the ECB Forum and this aided the climb.



Technical Outlook

The pair reached multi-month highs, trading now above 1.1340 and heading towards 1.1400. The picture is very much bullish and we expect price to continue upwards until 1.1400 is reached but there we expect to see a pause or probably a move lower. The Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory and the pair is facing a strong resistance zone between 1.1400 and 1.1450.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Euro will be affected by the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index. This is the main gauge of inflation for the German economy and usually has a high impact on the Euro; the forecast is a change of 0.0% from the previous -0.2% and higher numbers generate Euro strength under normal circumstances.

On the US Dollar side we have the Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a 1.2% change, same as previous. This is the main gauge of overall economic performance but the Final version is the last one released and tends to have a diminished impact.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a tremendous day yesterday after BOE Governor Mark Carney said in a panel discussion that some stimulus removal may be necessary. The pair posted a huge climb and broke several resistance levels.



Technical Outlook

After a small bounce lower at 1.2850 resistance, price climbed, fuelled by hawkish comments made by the Bank of England Governor. The current strength is likely to extend into 1.2975 – 1.3000 but a retracement should follow pretty soon considering that huge moves like the one seen yesterday are usually followed by a pullback. The bias is definitely bullish but be wary of retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Net Lending to Individuals comes out at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of consumer credit. A higher value than the forecast 4.0 Billion is usually beneficial for the Sterling, but the impact is low to medium.