EUR/USD
Forex News: The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change posted a much better number than expected (actual 253K, forecast 181K) and this strengthened the US Dollar, bringing the pair lower after another encounter with 1.1240 zone of resistance.
Technical Outlook
Most of the US Dollar gains triggered by the positive employment data were erased soon after but overall the session was bearish. The failed break of 1.1240 – 1.1250 zone is a sign that the uptrend may be coming to an end and makes the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the first target, followed by 1.1170. A break of 1.1240 would invalidate this scenario but price action today will be influenced by the U.S. employment data and the technical side will be secondary at release.
Fundamental Outlook
Today at 12:30 pm GMT the most important U.S. jobs indicator will be released: the Non-Farm Payrolls (aka Non-Farm Employment Change). The report shows changes in the total number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming sector and usually has a very strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it. Today’s forecast is a change of 186K, a drop from the previous 211K.
GBP/USD
Yesterday the pair descended into 1.2850 support on the back of US Dollar strength but the bears failed to break the level and instead price bounced higher, testing resistance again.
Technical Outlook
During the last couple of days the pair bounced between support and resistance, offering mixed signals. As long as the pair remains above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and breaks 1.2900, our bias is bullish but the technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental as both currencies in the pair will be influenced by economic releases.
Fundamental Outlook
The Construction PMI is today’s highlight for the Pound, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 52.7. This is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers, which tries to gauge their opinions regarding business conditions and the overall health of the Construction sector. Usually a value above expectations strengthens the Pound but the effect is limited if the actual number matches the forecast. The pair will also be affected by the release of the U.S. jobs data.